Spread: Wyoming (-7.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UTEP (75%) · UTEP at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
UTEP
8
UTEP 75%
$2.8K
$217.79
49.2¢ → 53.5¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUTEP at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | UTEPavg 48.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$103.24 | 57% 3582-2736 (6318) |
SN SnakeBall | UTEPavg 48¢ | $459.59 | $497.89 | +$38.3 | 48% 871-954 (1825) |
IC ic4cream | UTEPavg 52¢ | $444.6 | $444.6 | +$0 | 6% 29-459 (488) |
GC GC-P<$100 | UTEPavg 48¢ | $92.33 | $98.51 | +$6.18 | 36% 323-566 (889) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Wyomingavg 46.3¢ | $886.92 | $46.62 | +$69.7 | 54% 1217-1056 (2273) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | UTEPavg 48¢ | $9.68 | $10.48 | +$0.81 | 53% 1598-1443 (3041) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Wyomingavg 50¢ | $10.02 | $9.22 | -$0.8 | 48% 2982-3276 (6258) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UTEPavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.68 | +$0.36 | 55% 253-209 (462) |
Invested
$1,615.32
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$103.24
Record
57%
3582-2736 (6318)
Invested
$459.59
Value
$497.89
PnL
+$38.3
Record
48%
871-954 (1825)
Invested
$444.6
Value
$444.6
PnL
+$0
Record
6%
29-459 (488)
Invested
$92.33
Value
$98.51
PnL
+$6.18
Record
36%
323-566 (889)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$886.92
Value
$46.62
PnL
+$69.7
Record
54%
1217-1056 (2273)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$0.81
Record
53%
1598-1443 (3041)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
2982-3276 (6258)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0.36
Record
55%
253-209 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.