Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 49.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 50¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$53.31

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 49.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,942

Combined PnL-$293.72

Under6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares17,326

Combined PnL+$240.41

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$149.53	61% 1050-661 (1711)
nigiri99	Underavg 49¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$131.62	51% 579-546 (1125)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Overavg 52.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$136.57	6% 11-177 (188)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$27.26	1% 8-587 (595)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$35.44	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 47¢	$565.7	$589.77	+$24.07	59% 506-349 (855)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 48¢	$1.9K	$546.4	+$11	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48¢	$528.52	$539.53	+$11.01	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$530.3	-$5.36	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$81.17	$78.98	-$2.19	47% 319-356 (675)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$8	$7.92	-$0.08	23% 184-622 (806)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$5,083.91

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$149.53

Record

61%

1050-661 (1711)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$4,323.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$131.62

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Over

Invested

$2,999.8

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$136.57

Record

11-177 (188)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Under

Invested

$1,308.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$27.26

Record

8-587 (595)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,157.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.44

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$565.7

Value

$589.77

PnL

+$24.07

Record

59%

506-349 (855)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,935.4

Value

$546.4

PnL

+$11

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$528.52

Value

$539.53

PnL

+$11.01

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,495.65

Value

$530.3

PnL

-$5.36

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81.17

Value

$78.98

PnL

-$2.19

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

23%

184-622 (806)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.