Spread: South Carolina (-6.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold South Carolina (44%) · South Carolina at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

South Carolina56¢Arkansas44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Carolina

Consensus Traders

South Carolina 44%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$16.1

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Carolina56%

Arkansas45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Carolina4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL-$8

Arkansas5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,665

Combined PnL-$8.1

South Carolina — 44%Arkansas — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArkansas 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arkansas 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	South Carolinaavg 55¢	$813.45	$820.85	+$7.39	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
nigiri99CTR	Arkansasavg 45¢	$720	$712	-$8	52% 602-565 (1167)
HO HomeRunHazard	South Carolinaavg 57¢	$570	$555	-$15	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
VeryLucky888CTR	Arkansasavg 43¢	$433.24	$421.63	+$0.08	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
GC GC-P<$100	South Carolinaavg 55¢	$66.55	$67.16	+$0.61	39% 419-652 (1071)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	South Carolinaavg 58¢	$23.2	$22.2	-$1	53% 310-274 (584)
PR primmCTR<$100	Arkansasavg 42¢	$16.8	$17.2	+$0.4	60% 1016-678 (1694)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Arkansasavg 45¢	$15.3	$14.62	-$0.68	47% 985-1122 (2107)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arkansasavg 42¢	$4.23	$4.33	+$0.1	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

38791873984189

South Carolina

Invested

$813.45

Value

$820.85

PnL

+$7.39

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

nigiri99CTR

Arkansas

Invested

$720

Value

$712

PnL

-$8

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

HomeRunHazard

South Carolina

Invested

$570

Value

$555

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

VeryLucky888CTR

Arkansas

Invested

$433.24

Value

$421.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

GC-P<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$66.55

Value

$67.16

PnL

+$0.61

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

South Carolina

Invested

$23.2

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

primmCTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$15.3

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$0.68

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Carolina at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

South Carolina

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArkansas 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedArkansas 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arkansas 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.