Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 11 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Texas vs. LSU: O/U 47.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 50¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.7K

Combined PnL

-$63.33

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares36,978

Combined PnL-$353.16

Over11 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares39,511

Combined PnL+$289.83

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrotherObama	Underavg 50.6¢	$17.0K	$16.6K	-$366.54	— 5-11 (16)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$12.7K	$13.0K	+$257.18	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$68.69	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 52¢	$4.0K	$1.8K	-$93.69	52% 602-565 (1167)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$13.02	46% 52-61 (113)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	+$34.98	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$672.4	$693.28	+$22.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$503.82	$516.88	+$12.38
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$952.75	$948.75	-$4	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$627.05	$646.24	+$19.2	47% 985-1122 (2107)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$577.72	$595.93	+$18.21	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 50.3¢	$371.37	$379.09	+$7.72	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49¢	$245	$252.5	+$7.5	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
PR primm	Underavg 48¢	$214.91	$217.14	+$2.24	60% 1016-678 (1694)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$172.77	$177.9	+$5.13	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 48¢	$168	$171.5	+$3.5	33% 109-217 (326)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 49.3¢	$137.42	$135.31	-$2.1	47% 339-375 (714)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$40.2	$40.61	+$0.4	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 48¢	$501.27	$21.49	+$0.22	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

BrotherObama

Under

Invested

$17,000

Value

$16.6K

PnL

-$366.54

Record

—

5-11 (16)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$12,694.46

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$257.18

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,243.93

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$68.69

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$3,970.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$93.69

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$1,249.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.02

Record

46%

52-61 (113)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,279.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$34.98

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Under$672.448¢+$22.6

Over$503.8249.2¢+$12.38

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$952.75

Value

$948.75

PnL

-$4

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$627.05

Value

$646.24

PnL

+$19.2

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$577.72

Value

$595.93

PnL

+$18.21

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$371.37

Value

$379.09

PnL

+$7.72

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

primm

Under

Invested

$214.91

Value

$217.14

PnL

+$2.24

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$172.77

Value

$177.9

PnL

+$5.13

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$168

Value

$171.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

33%

109-217 (326)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$137.42

Value

$135.31

PnL

-$2.1

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.2

Value

$40.61

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$501.27

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 16 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.