Bulls vs. Timberwolves

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (18%) · Timberwolves at 89¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Bulls12¢Timberwolves88¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$92.17

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 88.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bulls12%

Timberwolves89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,867

Combined PnL-$12.71

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares16,246

Combined PnL-$79.46

Timberwolves — 18%Bulls — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Timberwolvesavg 89.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$18.86	68% 2637-1226 (3863)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bullsavg 11¢	$1.0K	$986.58	-$46.98	57% 3601-2755 (6356)
SU suntori	Timberwolvesavg 87.6¢	$629.51	$635.66	+$6.15	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Bullsavg 11¢	$426.54	$386.2	-$40.34	45% 242-293 (535)
GA GaditimaCTR	Bullsavg 11¢	$157.49	$103.55	+$4.69	49% 257-270 (527)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bullsavg 11¢	$86.42	$90.35	+$3.93	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Bullsavg 15.3¢	$99.6	$81.79	-$17.81	32% 95-201 (296)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 15.3¢	$68.06	$48.78	-$19.28
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 86¢	$31.54	$33.01	+$1.47
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bullsavg 11¢	$58.96	$56.28	-$2.68	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bullsavg 11¢	$45.1	$47.15	+$2.05	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
funnydayCTR<$100	Bullsavg 11.4¢	$22.88	$22	-$0.88	24% 7-22 (29)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 11.2¢	$47.48	$16.06	+$0.7	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 11¢	$1.11	$1.16	+$0.05	43% 949-1283 (2232)

purplegatto

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,287

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$18.86

Record

68%

2637-1226 (3863)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,033.56

Value

$986.58

PnL

-$46.98

Record

57%

3601-2755 (6356)

suntori

Timberwolves

Invested

$629.51

Value

$635.66

PnL

+$6.15

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Forecastication2CTR

Bulls

Invested

$426.54

Value

$386.2

PnL

-$40.34

Record

45%

242-293 (535)

GaditimaCTR

Bulls

Invested

$157.49

Value

$103.55

PnL

+$4.69

Record

49%

257-270 (527)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$86.42

Value

$90.35

PnL

+$3.93

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

OddstormARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$99.6

Value

$81.79

PnL

-$17.81

Record

32%

95-201 (296)

Both legs:

Bulls$68.0615.3¢-$19.28

Timberwolves$31.5486¢+$1.47

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$58.96

Value

$56.28

PnL

-$2.68

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$45.1

Value

$47.15

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

funnydayCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$22.88

Value

$22

PnL

-$0.88

Record

24%

7-22 (29)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$47.48

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.