Oregon State vs. Boise State

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (60%) · Boise State at 86¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 14

Oregon State14¢Boise State86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Boise State

Consensus Traders

Boise State 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.7K

Combined PnL

-$279.52

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 85.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon State14%

Boise State86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State9 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares28,430

Combined PnL+$625.82

Oregon State6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares33,334

Combined PnL-$905.35

Boise State — 60%Oregon State — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (13 on Boise State) disagree here.

sniperBoise State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOregon State 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Boise State 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scootergene	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$10.5K	$10.8K	+$253.6	4% 6-137 (143)
HO HomeRunHazard	Boise Stateavg 83.3¢	$10.0K	$10.3K	+$244.36	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
realbengvirCTR	Oregon Stateavg 16.8¢	$7.4K	$4.4K	-$929.59	— 1-18 (19)
38 38791873984189	Boise Stateavg 83.3¢	$5.1K	$1.8K	+$94.58	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
SN SnakeBall	Boise Stateavg 83.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.52	48% 852-928 (1780)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$371.28	$380.23	+$8.95	9% 14-144 (158)
HI hi774cCTR	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$311	$300.63	-$10.37	22% 158-576 (734)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$208.43	$213.45	+$5.02	55% 250-204 (454)
FE ferdinand2	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$107.9	$110.5	+$2.6	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$83.92	$83.44	-$0.48	48% 269-290 (559)
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$47.4	$45.82	-$1.58
└ Boise State leg	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$36.52	$37.62	+$1.1
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$75	$72.5	-$2.5	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$75	$72.5	-$2.5	36% 317-553 (870)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Boise Stateavg 83¢	$41.5	$42.5	+$1	39% 1083-1659 (2742)
GH ghorrock	Boise Stateavg 83.3¢	$111.19	$25.93	+$2.19	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Oregon Stateavg 15¢	$12	$11.6	-$0.4	38% 17-28 (45)
VeryLucky888CTR	Oregon Stateavg 14¢	$1.7K	$0.25	+$40.01	53% 1179-1029 (2208)

scootergene

Boise State

Invested

$10,524.4

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$253.6

Record

6-137 (143)

HomeRunHazard

Boise State

Invested

$10,021.05

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$244.36

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

realbengvirCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$7,356.78

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$929.59

Record

—

1-18 (19)

38791873984189

Boise State

Invested

$5,117.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$94.58

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

SnakeBall

Boise State

Invested

$1,097.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.52

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Boise State

Invested

$371.28

Value

$380.23

PnL

+$8.95

Record

14-144 (158)

hi774cCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$311

Value

$300.63

PnL

-$10.37

Record

22%

158-576 (734)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Boise State

Invested

$208.43

Value

$213.45

PnL

+$5.02

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

ferdinand2

Boise State

Invested

$107.9

Value

$110.5

PnL

+$2.6

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$83.92

Value

$83.44

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

Both legs:

Oregon State$47.415¢-$1.58

Boise State$36.5283¢+$1.1

NM-PCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$75

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

GC-PCTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$75

Value

$72.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Boise State

Invested

$41.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$1

Record

39%

1083-1659 (2742)

ghorrock

Boise State

Invested

$111.19

Value

$25.93

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$12

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

VeryLucky888CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$1,660.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$40.01

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

Research grade

NeutralBoise State at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Boise State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Oregon State) and the top 1000 (13 on Boise State) disagree here.

sniperBoise State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOregon State 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOregon State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Boise State 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.