Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 53¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$231.86

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 52.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares24,145

Combined PnL-$584.94

Over3 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares27,658

Combined PnL+$816.8

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$9.8K	$8.5K	-$526.1	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 49¢	$7.9K	$8.4K	+$558.36	50% 131-131 (262)
nigiri99	Overavg 50.3¢	$5.8K	$6.1K	+$259.04	52% 602-565 (1167)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$97.94	51% 3883-3667 (7550)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$698.98	$708.72	+$9.74	39% 419-652 (1071)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$360.5	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$345.48	$348.22	+$2.74
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$643.17	$659.58	+$16.42	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$360.5	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$289.67	$299.08	+$9.42
AY ay118CTR	Underavg 48¢	$540	$545.63	+$5.63	29% 39-97 (136)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 50¢	$500	$515	+$15	49% 429-439 (868)
PP ppku6298CTR	Underavg 48¢	$489.79	$494.89	+$5.1	10% 13-120 (133)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$408.52	$391.71	+$11.96	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$287.14	$292.77	+$5.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$93.84	$98.94	+$6.69
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 48¢	$384	$388	+$4	26% 375-1050 (1425)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$453.82	$248.47	+$6.84	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$58.26	$44.39	+$1.81	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$18.63	$18.03	-$0.6	56% 541-433 (974)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$12.41	$12.54	+$0.12	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$6.95	$5	+$0.6	41% 708-1019 (1727)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$9,766.66

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$526.1

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$7,851.97

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$558.36

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$5,829.91

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$259.04

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$1,958.84

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$97.94

Record

51%

3883-3667 (7550)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$698.98

Value

$708.72

PnL

+$9.74

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

Both legs:

Under$353.550.5¢+$7

Over$345.4848.1¢+$2.74

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$643.17

Value

$659.58

PnL

+$16.42

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

Both legs:

Invested

$540

Value

$545.63

PnL

+$5.63

Record

29%

39-97 (136)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$515

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

ppku6298CTR

Under

Invested

$489.79

Value

$494.89

PnL

+$5.1

Record

10%

13-120 (133)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$408.52

Value

$391.71

PnL

+$11.96

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Under$287.1450.5¢+$5.27

Over$93.8446¢+$6.69

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$384

Value

$388

PnL

+$4

Record

26%

375-1050 (1425)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$453.82

Value

$248.47

PnL

+$6.84

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.26

Value

$44.39

PnL

+$1.81

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$18.63

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.54

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.95

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.