Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (44%) · Mavericks at 65¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks65¢Cavaliers35¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.1K

Combined PnL

$28.01

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 64.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks65%

Cavaliers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares24,934

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Cavaliers9 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares23,522

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Mavericks — 44%Cavaliers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (14 on Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetard	Mavericksavg 61.1¢	$11.5K	$10.0K	+$645.52	72% 152-59 (211)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 38.5¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	-$333.04	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 62.1¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$78.17	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Mavericksavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$434.72	54% 550-471 (1021)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cavaliersavg 44.6¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$492	70% 1725-752 (2477)
HI hi774cCTR	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$1.0K	$937.86	-$80.39	23% 187-633 (820)
GC GC-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 38.9¢	$544.25	$490	-$54.25	39% 419-652 (1071)
NM NM-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 38.9¢	$544.25	$490	-$54.25	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
BI biying99999CTR	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$417.24	$384.3	-$32.94	36% 118-207 (325)
AN Anon455CTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$390	$350	-$40	49% 429-439 (868)
38 38791873984189	Mavericksavg 64¢	$551.41	$347.53	-$15.2	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
WA Wal1	Mavericksavg 61.2¢	$269.4	$283.8	+$14.4	— 17-0 (17)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 39.5¢	$272.6	$241.5	-$31.1	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$185	$175	-$10	33% 70-139 (209)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Mavericksavg 65¢	$81.25	$80.63	-$0.63	45% 277-332 (609)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$60.09	$59.63	-$0.46	47% 985-1122 (2107)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 37¢	$39.83	$37.67	-$2.15
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 60¢	$20.27	$21.95	+$1.69
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 65¢	$22.1	$14.1	-$1	49% 1694-1746 (3440)

ropetard

Mavericks

Invested

$11,461.53

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$645.52

Record

72%

152-59 (211)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,648

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$333.04

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$3,182.04

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$78.17

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Mavericks

Invested

$2,134.08

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$434.72

Record

54%

550-471 (1021)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,603.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$492

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

hi774cCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,018.25

Value

$937.86

PnL

-$80.39

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

GC-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$544.25

Value

$490

PnL

-$54.25

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

NM-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$544.25

Value

$490

PnL

-$54.25

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

biying99999CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$417.24

Value

$384.3

PnL

-$32.94

Record

36%

118-207 (325)

Anon455CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$390

Value

$350

PnL

-$40

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

38791873984189

Mavericks

Invested

$551.41

Value

$347.53

PnL

-$15.2

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Wal1

Mavericks

Invested

$269.4

Value

$283.8

PnL

+$14.4

Record

—

17-0 (17)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$272.6

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$31.1

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Bagwell306CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$185

Value

$175

PnL

-$10

Record

33%

70-139 (209)

Forecastication2<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$81.25

Value

$80.63

PnL

-$0.63

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$60.09

Value

$59.63

PnL

-$0.46

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$39.8337¢-$2.15

Mavericks$20.2760¢+$1.69

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$22.1

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (14 on Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.