Stanford vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 57.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$28.8

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,373

Combined PnL-$28.14

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,428

Combined PnL-$0.66

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO tomb2456CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$30	53% 37-33 (70)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51¢	$432.23	$403.52	+$0.29	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PR primm	Overavg 51¢	$255	$255	+$0	59% 948-662 (1610)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Underavg 48¢	$178.95	$180.81	+$1.86	59% 1135-783 (1918)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 52¢	$42.12	$41.31	-$0.81	54% 295-256 (551)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Overavg 52¢	$8.92	$8.75	-$0.17	50% 114-116 (230)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 51¢	$6.63	$6.63	+$0	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 51¢	$3.04	$3.07	+$0.03	39% 402-638 (1040)

tomb2456CTR

Under

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

53%

37-33 (70)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,032.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$432.23

Value

$403.52

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

primm

Over

Invested

$255

Value

$255

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Under

Invested

$178.95

Value

$180.81

PnL

+$1.86

Record

59%

1135-783 (1918)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$42.12

Value

$41.31

PnL

-$0.81

Record

54%

295-256 (551)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Over

Invested

$8.92

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

114-116 (230)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.