Oilers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$4.63

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,017

Combined PnL-$35.45

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,502

Combined PnL+$40.07

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$16.19	52% 602-565 (1167)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$940	$950	+$10	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
PU purplegatto	Overavg 53¢	$869.37	$861.17	-$8.2	68% 2651-1237 (3888)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$685.59	-$10.8	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 47¢	$571.52	$577.6	+$6.08	33% 70-139 (209)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$455.37	$460.22	+$4.84	47% 985-1122 (2107)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$356.94	$369.61	+$12.68	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 46¢	$142.52	$147.16	+$4.65	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$70.97	$71.73	+$0.75	47% 339-375 (714)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$31.28	$32.3	+$1.02	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 55¢	$27.5	$27.25	-$0.25	56% 541-433 (974)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.75	+$0.05	53% 310-274 (584)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,604.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$16.19

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$940

Value

$950

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

purplegatto

Over

Invested

$869.37

Value

$861.17

PnL

-$8.2

Record

68%

2651-1237 (3888)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,163.39

Value

$685.59

PnL

-$10.8

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$571.52

Value

$577.6

PnL

+$6.08

Record

33%

70-139 (209)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$455.37

Value

$460.22

PnL

+$4.84

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$356.94

Value

$369.61

PnL

+$12.68

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$142.52

Value

$147.16

PnL

+$4.65

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.97

Value

$71.73

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.28

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$1.02

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$27.5

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.