Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UNLV, while the market favors New Mexico (54%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: New Mexico (-18.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold UNLV (54%) · UNLV at 47¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

New Mexico54¢UNLV46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UNLV

Consensus Traders

UNLV 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$362.49

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 46.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors New Mexico 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico54%

UNLV47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico6 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,279

Combined PnL+$555.33

UNLV7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares13,136

Combined PnL-$192.84

New Mexico — 46%UNLV — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	New Mexicoavg 48¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$374.81	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
MA MadridTimeCTR	UNLVavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$25.55	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$108.41	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
DO Donkey14CTR	UNLVavg 48¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.25	36% 9-16 (25)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$12.25	46% 52-61 (113)
LI Limousin	New Mexicoavg 44.7¢	$819.91	$889.99	+$70.08	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
nigiri99CTR	UNLVavg 47¢	$553.66	$547.77	-$5.89	52% 602-565 (1167)
NM NM-PARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 53¢	$353.5	$350	-$3.5	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 48¢	$168	$162.75	-$5.25
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	UNLVavg 53.4¢	$369.56	$327.22	-$42.35	47% 339-375 (714)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$164.43	$166.05	+$1.61	47% 985-1122 (2107)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	New Mexicoavg 53¢	$93.28	$94.16	+$0.88	53% 310-274 (584)
FE ferdinand2<$100	New Mexicoavg 52¢	$38.22	$39.32	+$1.1	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
GH ghorrock<$100	New Mexicoavg 53¢	$5.34	$5.39	+$0.05	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
VeryLucky888CTR	UNLVavg 54.5¢	$1.1K	$1.17	-$150.16	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

LightParadox

New Mexico

Invested

$3,245.72

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$374.81

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

MadridTimeCTR

UNLV

Invested

$2,402.04

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25.55

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$2,254.64

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$108.41

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Donkey14CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,656.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.25

Record

36%

9-16 (25)

0x0A77exmmCTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,249.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.25

Record

46%

52-61 (113)

Limousin

New Mexico

Invested

$819.91

Value

$889.99

PnL

+$70.08

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

nigiri99CTR

UNLV

Invested

$553.66

Value

$547.77

PnL

-$5.89

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

NM-PARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$353.5

Value

$350

PnL

-$3.5

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

Both legs:

New Mexico$185.553¢+$1.75

UNLV$16848¢-$5.25

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

UNLV

Invested

$369.56

Value

$327.22

PnL

-$42.35

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

SnakeBallCTR

UNLV

Invested

$164.43

Value

$166.05

PnL

+$1.61

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$93.28

Value

$94.16

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

ferdinand2<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$38.22

Value

$39.32

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

ghorrock<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

VeryLucky888CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,091.33

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$150.16

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralUNLV at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UNLV

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors New Mexico 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNLV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.