Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 75.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$13.87

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,971

Combined PnL-$41.15

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,003

Combined PnL+$55.02

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$42.14	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$34.58	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$679.99	$686.93	+$6.94	49% 650-689 (1339)
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Underavg 48¢	$480	$490	+$10	26% 22-64 (86)
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$642.33	$243.92	+$1.58	52% 602-565 (1167)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	39% 419-652 (1071)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 52¢	$18.72	$18	-$0.72	47% 339-375 (714)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 50¢	$12.15	$12.27	+$0.12	47% 3383-3741 (7124)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,297.96

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$42.14

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,388.69

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$34.58

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$679.99

Value

$686.93

PnL

+$6.94

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

DanielsDixonCTR

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$490

PnL

+$10

Record

26%

22-64 (86)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$642.33

Value

$243.92

PnL

+$1.58

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$18.72

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$12.15

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.