Spread: Wyoming (-8.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold UTEP (71%) · UTEP at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Wyoming44¢UTEP56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UTEP

Consensus Traders

UTEP 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$436.62

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 56.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUTEP at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UTEP

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wyoming44%

UTEP56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTEP5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,902

Combined PnL+$478.21

Wyoming2 traders

Total Value$657.72

Total Shares1,512

Combined PnL-$41.59

UTEP — 71%Wyoming — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wyoming) and the top 1000 (4 on UTEP) disagree here.

ctrUTEP 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedWyoming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UTEP 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	UTEPavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$237.6	6% 30-460 (490)
HO HomeRunHazard	UTEPavg 49.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$232.38	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99CTR	Wyomingavg 44¢	$663.52	$655.98	-$7.54	52% 573-538 (1111)
NM NM-PARB<$100	UTEPavg 50¢	$346.5	$350	+$3.5	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
└ UTEP leg	UTEPavg 50¢	$175	$197.75	+$22.75
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 49¢	$171.5	$152.25	-$19.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	UTEPavg 50¢	$346.5	$350	+$3.5	38% 395-632 (1027)
└ UTEP leg	UTEPavg 50¢	$175	$197.75	+$22.75
└ Wyoming leg	Wyomingavg 49¢	$171.5	$152.25	-$19.25
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	UTEPavg 56¢	$87.21	$87.99	+$0.78	26% 355-1035 (1390)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UTEPavg 50¢	$43	$48.59	+$5.59	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrock<$100	UTEPavg 49.4¢	$20.81	$12.39	+$1.86	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wyomingavg 48.7¢	$1.7K	$1.74	-$34.05	54% 1473-1278 (2751)

ic4cream

UTEP

Invested

$2,203.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$237.6

Record

30-460 (490)

HomeRunHazard

UTEP

Invested

$1,642.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$232.38

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99CTR

Wyoming

Invested

$663.52

Value

$655.98

PnL

-$7.54

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

NM-PARB<$100

UTEP

Invested

$346.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

Both legs:

UTEP$17550¢+$22.75

Wyoming$171.549¢-$19.25

GC-PARB<$100

UTEP

Invested

$346.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

Both legs:

UTEP$17550¢+$22.75

Wyoming$171.549¢-$19.25

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

UTEP

Invested

$87.21

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$0.78

Record

26%

355-1035 (1390)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UTEP

Invested

$43

Value

$48.59

PnL

+$5.59

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrock<$100

UTEP

Invested

$20.81

Value

$12.39

PnL

+$1.86

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wyoming

Invested

$1,652.99

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$34.05

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

Research grade

NeutralUTEP at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UTEP

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on UTEP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wyoming) and the top 1000 (4 on UTEP) disagree here.

ctrUTEP 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedWyoming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UTEP 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UTEP wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.