Panthers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 56¢ · $337 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$336.61
$1.2
54.1¢ → 55.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54¢ | $286.9 | $289.56 | +$2.66 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
RO royalestake<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $24.26 | $24.04 | -$0.22 | 8% 17-192 (209) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $18.62 | $17.29 | -$1.33 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $4.09 | $4.14 | +$0.05 | 37% 1030-1762 (2792) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $1.53 | $1.58 | +$0.05 | 55% 515-424 (939) |
Invested
$286.9
Value
$289.56
PnL
+$2.66
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$24.04
PnL
-$0.22
Record
8%
17-192 (209)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$18.62
Value
$17.29
PnL
-$1.33
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.05
Record
37%
1030-1762 (2792)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
515-424 (939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.