North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 39.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$5.61

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,503

Combined PnL+$6.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$468.93

Total Shares967

Combined PnL-$1.24

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$21.59	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52.5¢	$1.0K	$992.4	-$18.91	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 51¢	$852.72	$861.08	+$8.36	4% 23-537 (560)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$264.6	$261.9	-$2.7	52% 573-538 (1111)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52.3¢	$198.33	$195.19	-$3.14	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$115.8	$116.32	+$0.52	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$89.77	$90.71	+$0.94	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 52¢	$89.44	$88.58	-$0.86	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 52¢	$18.72	$18.54	-$0.18	47% 312-350 (662)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,201.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.59

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,050

Value

$992.4

PnL

-$18.91

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$852.72

Value

$861.08

PnL

+$8.36

Record

23-537 (560)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$264.6

Value

$261.9

PnL

-$2.7

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$198.33

Value

$195.19

PnL

-$3.14

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$115.8

Value

$116.32

PnL

+$0.52

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.77

Value

$90.71

PnL

+$0.94

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$89.44

Value

$88.58

PnL

-$0.86

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$18.72

Value

$18.54

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.