Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (67%) · Pelicans at 51¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Nuggets50¢Pelicans50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 67%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

-$46.75

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets50%

Pelicans51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,791

Combined PnL+$25.02

Pelicans8 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares12,595

Combined PnL-$71.77

Nuggets — 33%Pelicans — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Nuggetsavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$48.11	45% 263-319 (582)
nehcnehc	Pelicansavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$92.76	36% 54-95 (149)
nigiri99CTR	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$587.93	$564.97	-$22.96	51% 568-535 (1103)
FO forecastication4	Pelicansavg 49¢	$431.2	$440	+$8.8	34% 170-337 (507)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Pelicansavg 50¢	$400	$404	+$4	25% 350-1027 (1377)
VeryLucky888	Pelicansavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
GC GC-P	Pelicansavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Pelicansavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$41.07	$41.48	+$0.41	47% 936-1037 (1973)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Pelicansavg 50¢	$28.3	$28.58	+$0.28	61% 1043-661 (1704)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$5.35	$5.24	-$0.11	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	42% 1031-1416 (2447)

Forecastication2CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$4,715.07

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$48.11

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

nehcnehc

Pelicans

Invested

$4,730.75

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$92.76

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

nigiri99CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$587.93

Value

$564.97

PnL

-$22.96

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

forecastication4

Pelicans

Invested

$431.2

Value

$440

PnL

+$8.8

Record

34%

170-337 (507)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Pelicans

Invested

$400

Value

$404

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

VeryLucky888

Pelicans

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

GC-P

Pelicans

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Pelicans

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

SnakeBall<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$41.07

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

darkumbreon88<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$28.3

Value

$28.58

PnL

+$0.28

Record

61%

1043-661 (1704)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0.11

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.