Rockets vs. Wizards

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (58%) · Rockets at 80¢ · $289 held · ends Nov 16

Rockets80¢Wizards20¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 58%

Total Value

$289.43

Combined PnL

$1.89

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 79.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets80%

Wizards21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$143.44

Total Shares743

Combined PnL+$2.52

Rockets7 traders

Total Value$145.99

Total Shares181

Combined PnL-$0.63

Wizards — 42%Rockets — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19¢	$95.23	$97.74	+$2.51	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
nigiri99<$100	Rocketsavg 82¢	$78.72	$77.76	-$0.96	51% 639-619 (1258)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 79¢	$26.07	$26.24	+$0.17	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19¢	$22.04	$22.04	+$0	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
GH ghorrock<$100	Rocketsavg 79.4¢	$20.1	$20.11	+$0.01	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 18¢	$12.53	$12.53	-$0	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Rocketsavg 80¢	$8	$8.1	+$0.1	34% 119-227 (346)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 21¢	$7.56	$7.38	-$0.18	68% 2656-1243 (3899)
HY hydra1248<$100	Rocketsavg 82¢	$6.95	$6.87	-$0.08	75% 203-67 (270)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Rocketsavg 79¢	$3.95	$4.05	+$0.1	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
funnydayCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 18¢	$3.55	$3.75	+$0.2	23% 7-24 (31)
GA Gaditima<$100	Rocketsavg 80¢	$2.83	$2.86	+$0.04	49% 324-333 (657)

suntoriCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$95.23

Value

$97.74

PnL

+$2.51

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

nigiri99<$100

Rockets

Invested

$78.72

Value

$77.76

PnL

-$0.96

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$26.07

Value

$26.24

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$22.04

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

ghorrock<$100

Rockets

Invested

$20.1

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$12.53

Value

$12.53

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Oddstorm<$100

Rockets

Invested

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

119-227 (346)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$7.56

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$0.18

Record

68%

2656-1243 (3899)

hydra1248<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.87

PnL

-$0.08

Record

75%

203-67 (270)

6512395314597884<$100

Rockets

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

funnydayCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.2

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

Gaditima<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.