Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Colorado State vs. Washington State: O/U 63.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 47¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
$7.5K
$119.3
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $3.9K | $3.8K | -$71.84 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$73.15 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$57.82 | 54% 1473-1278 (2751) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 52¢ | $584.48 | $623.82 | +$39.34 | 48% 3273-3600 (6873) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 52¢ | $259.65 | $277.13 | +$17.48 | 22% 179-619 (798) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $71.02 | $74.37 | +$3.35 | 47% 312-350 (662) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$3,877.87
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$71.84
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
Invested
$1,550.87
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$73.15
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,011.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$57.82
Record
54%
1473-1278 (2751)
Invested
$584.48
Value
$623.82
PnL
+$39.34
Record
48%
3273-3600 (6873)
Invested
$259.65
Value
$277.13
PnL
+$17.48
Record
22%
179-619 (798)
Invested
$71.02
Value
$74.37
PnL
+$3.35
Record
47%
312-350 (662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.