Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)

1 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (7%) · Nuggets at 64¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 15

Nuggets64¢Pelicans36¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 7%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$59.1K

Combined PnL

$662.69

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

1 of 14 top traders (7%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets64%

Pelicans37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets1 trader

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares61,590

Combined PnL+$721.25

Pelicans13 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares50,853

Combined PnL-$58.56

Nuggets — 7%Pelicans — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Nuggetsavg 62.3¢	$38.4K	$39.1K	+$721.25	63% 26-15 (41)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 37.7¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$61.41	56% 3686-2847 (6533)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 37.6¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$148.22	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 37.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$7.82	23% 179-616 (795)
SE sentrioCTR	Pelicansavg 37.5¢	$955.04	$966.92	+$11.88	42% 979-1345 (2324)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 60.6¢	$897.28	$835.44	+$28.88	70% 1724-751 (2475)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 60.6¢	$449.35	$471.17	+$25.33
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 36.1¢	$360.72	$364.27	+$3.55
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 38¢	$570	$570	+$0	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Pelicansavg 36.9¢	$332	$328.5	-$3.5	35% 162-304 (466)
BI biying99999CTR	Pelicansavg 38¢	$250.42	$250.42	+$0	34% 101-192 (293)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pelicansavg 37.4¢	$294.17	$238.93	+$4.87	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 36¢	$87.62	$92.49	+$4.87	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 37¢	$66.23	$65.34	-$0.9	48% 2045-2201 (4246)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 37¢	$48.1	$49.4	+$1.3	33% 168-335 (503)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 38.1¢	$41.9	$41.8	-$0.1	54% 489-415 (904)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 36¢	$36	$38	+$2	53% 7024-6169 (13193)

bigbeliever

Nuggets

Invested

$38,388.13

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$721.25

Record

63%

26-15 (41)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$7,624.43

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$61.41

Record

56%

3686-2847 (6533)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$5,016.05

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$148.22

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$3,954.17

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$7.82

Record

23%

179-616 (795)

sentrioCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$955.04

Value

$966.92

PnL

+$11.88

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$897.28

Value

$835.44

PnL

+$28.88

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

Both legs:

Nuggets$449.3560.6¢+$25.33

Pelicans$360.7236.1¢+$3.55

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$570

Value

$570

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

BoomLaLaCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$332

Value

$328.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

35%

162-304 (466)

biying99999CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$250.42

Value

$250.42

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

101-192 (293)

38791873984189CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$294.17

Value

$238.93

PnL

+$4.87

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$87.62

Value

$92.49

PnL

+$4.87

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$66.23

Value

$65.34

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$48.1

Value

$49.4

PnL

+$1.3

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$41.9

Value

$41.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

489-415 (904)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$36

Value

$38

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

1 of 14 top traders (7%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.