Panthers vs. Blues

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (50%) · Blues at 52¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 15

Panthers49¢Blues51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blues

Consensus Traders

Blues 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

$114.23

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers49%

Blues52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blues6 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares27,587

Combined PnL+$521.21

Panthers6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares20,093

Combined PnL-$406.98

Blues — 50%Panthers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBlues 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Blues 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Bluesavg 49¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$283.38	52% 106-98 (204)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bluesavg 50¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$130.87	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
0xheavy888CTR	Panthersavg 50.5¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$160	54% 498-419 (917)
RO roldyCTR	Panthersavg 51¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$162.5	37% 11-19 (30)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Bluesavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$89.99	6% 11-176 (187)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Panthersavg 50¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$81.08	45% 81-98 (179)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Panthersavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$30.8	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 51¢	$880.53	$837.37	-$43.16
└ Blues leg	Bluesavg 50¢	$412.13	$424.49	+$12.36
fyrsken	Bluesavg 49.2¢	$423.23	$430.32	+$7.08	52% 56-52 (108)
nigiri99	Bluesavg 50¢	$321.5	$331.15	+$9.64	51% 568-535 (1103)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 50.4¢	$71.09	$68.39	-$2.7	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bluesavg 49¢	$20.43	$20.67	+$0.24	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Panthersavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.13	-$0.38	39% 1088-1672 (2760)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Panthersavg 50¢	$11	$10.67	-$0.33	54% 286-244 (530)

taylorsversion

Blues

Invested

$5,554.33

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$283.38

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Blues

Invested

$4,362.4

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$130.87

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

0xheavy888CTR

Panthers

Invested

$4,040

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$160

Record

54%

498-419 (917)

roldyCTR

Panthers

Invested

$3,314.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$162.5

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

MAGATheeStallion

Blues

Invested

$2,999.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$89.99

Record

11-176 (187)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Panthers

Invested

$2,702.5

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$81.08

Record

45%

81-98 (179)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$1,292.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$30.8

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Panthers$880.5351¢-$43.16

Blues$412.1350¢+$12.36

fyrsken

Blues

Invested

$423.23

Value

$430.32

PnL

+$7.08

Record

52%

56-52 (108)

nigiri99

Blues

Invested

$321.5

Value

$331.15

PnL

+$9.64

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$71.09

Value

$68.39

PnL

-$2.7

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

ghorrock<$100

Blues

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.67

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$0.38

Record

39%

1088-1672 (2760)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$11

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$0.33

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Blues

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBlues 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Blues 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blues wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.