Spread: Air Force (-14.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold San Jose State (70%) · San Jose State at 54¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 15

Air Force47¢San Jose State53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

San Jose State

Consensus Traders

San Jose State 70%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

-$440.4

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSan Jose State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Jose State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Air Force47%

San Jose State54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Jose State7 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares32,078

Combined PnL-$305.68

Air Force3 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares32,444

Combined PnL-$134.72

San Jose State — 70%Air Force — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on San Jose State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Jose State 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000San Jose State 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$15.9K	$15.6K	-$300.64	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Air Forceavg 47¢	$12.7K	$12.5K	-$134.6	49% 635-674 (1309)
GM gmpm2CTR	Air Forceavg 47¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0	55% 356-295 (651)
DA DanielsDixon	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$530	$535	+$5	21% 16-62 (78)
38 38791873984189	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$341.85	$335.4	-$6.45	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	San Jose Stateavg 52.9¢	$81.21	$79.78	-$1.43	48% 293-321 (614)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$65.72	$64.48	-$1.24	9% 14-145 (159)
FO forecastication4<$100	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$43.46	$42.64	-$0.82	33% 168-336 (504)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Air Forceavg 47¢	$11.75	$11.63	-$0.13	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrock<$100	San Jose Stateavg 53¢	$10.08	$9.98	-$0.1	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

San Jose State

Invested

$15,933.78

Value

$15.6K

PnL

-$300.64

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Air Force

Invested

$12,652.13

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$134.6

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

gmpm2CTR

Air Force

Invested

$2,585

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

356-295 (651)

DanielsDixon

San Jose State

Invested

$530

Value

$535

PnL

+$5

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

38791873984189

San Jose State

Invested

$341.85

Value

$335.4

PnL

-$6.45

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$81.21

Value

$79.78

PnL

-$1.43

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$65.72

Value

$64.48

PnL

-$1.24

Record

14-145 (159)

forecastication4<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$43.46

Value

$42.64

PnL

-$0.82

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Air Force

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrock<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$10.08

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralSan Jose State at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

San Jose State

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on San Jose State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Jose State 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000San Jose State 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Jose State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.