Avalanche vs. Canadiens
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (13%) · Canadiens at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Canadiens
8
Canadiens 13%
$9.7K
$204.3
Research grade
NeutralCanadiens at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Canadiensavg 50.8¢ | $6.3K | $6.7K | +$332.12 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Avalancheavg 49.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$59.64 | 34% 144-285 (429) |
HI hi774cCTR | Avalancheavg 47¢ | $662.24 | $655.19 | -$7.05 | 22% 158-576 (734) |
 fyrskenCTR | Avalancheavg 49¢ | $657.66 | $630.74 | -$26.92 | 51% 50-49 (99) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Avalancheavg 48.9¢ | $278.21 | $267.31 | -$10.9 | 49% 1329-1376 (2705) |
 nigiri99CTR | Avalancheavg 50¢ | $279 | $262.26 | -$16.74 | 52% 499-463 (962) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Avalancheavg 49.8¢ | $112.9 | $103.86 | -$6.34 | 53% 1556-1404 (2960) |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Avalancheavg 48¢ | $11.52 | $11.28 | -$0.24 | 6% 27-459 (486) |
Invested
$6,348.11
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$332.12
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$1,106.69
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$59.64
Record
34%
144-285 (429)
Invested
$662.24
Value
$655.19
PnL
-$7.05
Record
22%
158-576 (734)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$657.66
Value
$630.74
PnL
-$26.92
Record
51%
50-49 (99)
Invested
$278.21
Value
$267.31
PnL
-$10.9
Record
49%
1329-1376 (2705)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$279
Value
$262.26
PnL
-$16.74
Record
52%
499-463 (962)
Invested
$112.9
Value
$103.86
PnL
-$6.34
Record
53%
1556-1404 (2960)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$11.28
PnL
-$0.24
Record
6%
27-459 (486)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.