Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 47.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$4.5K
$37.21
48.1¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$24.35 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $970 | $949.99 | +$0.62 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $840 | $848.75 | +$8.75 | 2% 11-516 (527) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $240 | $242.5 | +$2.5 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $52.8 | $53.35 | +$0.55 | 67% 1681-834 (2515) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $43.2 | $43.65 | +$0.45 | 54% 135-114 (249) |
Invested
$2,337.12
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$24.35
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$970
Value
$949.99
PnL
+$0.62
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$840
Value
$848.75
PnL
+$8.75
Record
2%
11-516 (527)
Invested
$240
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$52.8
Value
$53.35
PnL
+$0.55
Record
67%
1681-834 (2515)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$43.65
PnL
+$0.45
Record
54%
135-114 (249)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.