Montana Grizzlies vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Montana Grizzlies (38%) · Montana Grizzlies at 52¢ · $740 held · ended Nov 14

Montana Grizzlies52¢North Dakota Fighting Hawks48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Montana Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Montana Grizzlies 38%

Total Value

$739.61

Combined PnL

$4.98

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMontana Grizzlies at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montana Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Montana Grizzlies52%

North Dakota Fighting Hawks49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montana Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$429.43

Total Shares830

Combined PnL+$6.05

North Dakota Fighting Hawks5 traders

Total Value$310.18

Total Shares642

Combined PnL-$1.07

Montana Grizzlies — 38%North Dakota Fighting Hawks — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Montana Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota Fighting Hawks 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Montana Grizzliesavg 52¢	$220.48	$218.36	-$2.12	51% 628-592 (1220)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 48¢	$203.52	$205.64	+$2.12	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603	Montana Grizzliesavg 50¢	$182.45	$189.8	+$7.35	58% 15-11 (26)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 50¢	$50	$48	-$2	34% 169-323 (492)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 49¢	$39.1	$38.3	-$0.8	23% 191-640 (831)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Montana Grizzliesavg 50¢	$20.45	$21.27	+$0.82	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 48.9¢	$16.13	$15.84	-$0.29	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	North Dakota Fighting Hawksavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.1	41% 726-1032 (1758)

nigiri99

Montana Grizzlies

Invested

$220.48

Value

$218.36

PnL

-$2.12

Record

51%

628-592 (1220)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$203.52

Value

$205.64

PnL

+$2.12

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603

Montana Grizzlies

Invested

$182.45

Value

$189.8

PnL

+$7.35

Record

58%

15-11 (26)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$50

Value

$48

PnL

-$2

Record

34%

169-323 (492)

hi774cCTR<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$39.1

Value

$38.3

PnL

-$0.8

Record

23%

191-640 (831)

Flaznorp<$100

Montana Grizzlies

Invested

$20.45

Value

$21.27

PnL

+$0.82

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

Pan9XCTR<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$16.13

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidMontana Grizzlies at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Montana Grizzlies

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Montana Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota Fighting Hawks 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montana Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.