Red Wings vs. Lightning

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lightning (56%) · Lightning at 67¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Red Wings34¢Lightning66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lightning

Consensus Traders

Lightning 56%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$50.51

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Red Wings34%

Lightning67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lightning5 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares15,558

Combined PnL-$223.04

Red Wings4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares19,831

Combined PnL+$273.55

Lightning — 56%Red Wings — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Red Wings) and the top 1000 (8 on Lightning) disagree here.

sharpLightning 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLightning 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Lightningavg 67.5¢	$10.0K	$9.8K	-$221.72	— 12-5 (17)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Red Wingsavg 33¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$122.34	52% 106-98 (204)
RO roldyCTR	Red Wingsavg 32¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$140	37% 11-19 (30)
CO cocococococoCTR	Red Wingsavg 32¢	$181.7	$193.05	+$11.36	26% 14-39 (53)
VeryLucky888	Lightningavg 66¢	$162.22	$163.45	+$1.23	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
WE westing.v1	Lightningavg 67¢	$158.93	$156.56	-$2.37	23% 29-98 (127)
0xheavy888	Lightningavg 66¢	$131.99	$131.99	+$0	54% 503-422 (925)
GH ghorrock<$100	Lightningavg 67¢	$44.78	$44.6	-$0.18	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 34¢	$10	$9.85	-$0.15	0% 0-81 (81)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Lightning

Invested

$10,002.24

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$221.72

Record

—

12-5 (17)

taylorsversionCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$4,037.2

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$122.34

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

roldyCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$2,240

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$140

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

cocococococoCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$181.7

Value

$193.05

PnL

+$11.36

Record

26%

14-39 (53)

VeryLucky888

Lightning

Invested

$162.22

Value

$163.45

PnL

+$1.23

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

westing.v1

Lightning

Invested

$158.93

Value

$156.56

PnL

-$2.37

Record

23%

29-98 (127)

0xheavy888

Lightning

Invested

$131.99

Value

$131.99

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

ghorrock<$100

Lightning

Invested

$44.78

Value

$44.6

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$10

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

0-81 (81)

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Red Wings) and the top 1000 (8 on Lightning) disagree here.

sharpLightning 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLightning 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lightning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.