Texas vs. LSU

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold LSU (56%) · LSU at 64¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 15

Texas37¢LSU63¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LSU

Consensus Traders

LSU 56%

Total Value

$30.9K

Combined PnL

$52.75

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas37%

LSU64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU5 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares35,821

Combined PnL+$90.31

Texas4 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares22,880

Combined PnL-$37.57

LSU — 56%Texas — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	LSUavg 63.9¢	$14.0K	$13.9K	-$90.7	10% 13-120 (133)
VeryLucky888	LSUavg 61.7¢	$8.5K	$8.3K	+$172.06	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Texasavg 36¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$0	51% 3833-3620 (7453)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texasavg 36.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$36.94	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Texasavg 36¢	$220.89	$220.89	+$0	9% 14-144 (158)
HO HomeRunHazard	LSUavg 62¢	$202.23	$205.49	+$3.26	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
SN SnakeBall	LSUavg 62¢	$178.78	$181.66	+$2.88	48% 852-928 (1780)
GH ghorrock	LSUavg 62.1¢	$183.87	$151.97	+$2.81	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Texasavg 37¢	$23.1	$22.48	-$0.62	62% 1023-638 (1661)

EdZachary

LSU

Invested

$13,972.07

Value

$13.9K

PnL

-$90.7

Record

10%

13-120 (133)

VeryLucky888

LSU

Invested

$8,502.57

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$172.06

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Texas

Invested

$6,415.39

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3833-3620 (7453)

38791873984189CTR

Texas

Invested

$1,614.85

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$36.94

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Texas

Invested

$220.89

Value

$220.89

PnL

+$0

Record

14-144 (158)

HomeRunHazard

LSU

Invested

$202.23

Value

$205.49

PnL

+$3.26

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

SnakeBall

LSU

Invested

$178.78

Value

$181.66

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

ghorrock

LSU

Invested

$183.87

Value

$151.97

PnL

+$2.81

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Texas

Invested

$23.1

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$0.62

Record

62%

1023-638 (1661)

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLSU 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LSU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.