Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nets (57%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (64%) · Grizzlies at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Grizzlies43¢Nets57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$8.93

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 42.5¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies43%

Nets57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,094

Combined PnL-$129.62

Nets4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,574

Combined PnL+$120.69

Grizzlies — 64%Nets — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$122.4	3% 18-515 (533)
OM omnibus-076daa	Netsavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$86.86	46% 483-572 (1055)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$79.8	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 51¢	$763.96	$861.33	+$97.37
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 45.1¢	$304.54	$286.97	-$17.57
TA takeormake	Netsavg 54¢	$478.47	$509.48	+$31.01	57% 3574-2660 (6234)
NM NM-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$161	$159.25	-$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$161	$159.25	-$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Netsavg 55¢	$149.6	$150.96	+$1.36	49% 635-674 (1309)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 44.4¢	$79.61	$76.27	-$3.34	47% 895-992 (1887)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Netsavg 51¢	$37.23	$38.69	+$1.46	48% 2066-2225 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$28.09	$27.78	-$0.31	42% 990-1359 (2349)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$11.5	$11.38	-$0.13	50% 1585-1605 (3190)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 43¢	$3.77	$3.82	+$0.04	54% 492-416 (908)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,998.78

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$122.4

Record

18-515 (533)

omnibus-076daa

Nets

Invested

$2,214.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$86.86

Record

46%

483-572 (1055)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$1,068.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$79.8

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Nets$763.9651¢+$97.37

Grizzlies$304.5445.1¢-$17.57

takeormake

Nets

Invested

$478.47

Value

$509.48

PnL

+$31.01

Record

57%

3574-2660 (6234)

NM-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$161

Value

$159.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$161

Value

$159.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Multicoloured-Serf

Nets

Invested

$149.6

Value

$150.96

PnL

+$1.36

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$79.61

Value

$76.27

PnL

-$3.34

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

ferdinand2<$100

Nets

Invested

$37.23

Value

$38.69

PnL

+$1.46

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$28.09

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$0.31

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1585-1605 (3190)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

492-416 (908)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.