Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Arizona, while the market favors Utah (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Utah vs. Arizona
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona (60%) · Arizona at 44¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Arizona
5
Arizona 60%
$390.93
-$5.67
42.7¢ → 43.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralArizona at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Arizonaavg 42.6¢ | $399.59 | $336.18 | -$4.67 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Arizonaavg 44¢ | $22.88 | $21.84 | -$1.04 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100 | Utahavg 58¢ | $18.08 | $18.08 | +$0 | 2% 5-316 (321) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Utahavg 57¢ | $13.31 | $13.39 | +$0.08 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Arizonaavg 43¢ | $1.48 | $1.44 | -$0.03 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
Invested
$399.59
Value
$336.18
PnL
-$4.67
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$22.88
Value
$21.84
PnL
-$1.04
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$18.08
Value
$18.08
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
5-316 (321)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.