Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 59¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks59¢Cavaliers41¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$255.76

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks59%

Cavaliers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares14,647

Combined PnL+$829.92

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares16,245

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Mavericks — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (12 on Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 54.4¢	$5.3K	$5.8K	+$564.81	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 45.5¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$640.1	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
WA Wal1	Mavericksavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$219.83	— 17-0 (17)
HI hi774cCTR	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$213.51	23% 187-633 (820)
AN Anon455CTR	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$565.71	$486.14	-$79.57	49% 429-439 (868)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$539.78	$467.95	-$71.83	35% 520-947 (1467)
VE Venusian	Mavericksavg 49¢	$162.58	$195.76	+$33.18	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$225	$195	-$30	33% 70-139 (209)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$164.58	$156.11	-$8.47	56% 541-433 (974)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$117.5	$97.5	-$20
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 49¢	$47.08	$58.61	+$11.53
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$163.09	$135.33	-$27.76	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Mavericksavg 55¢	$68.75	$76.25	+$7.5	18% 59-270 (329)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cavaliersavg 46.2¢	$327.3	$38.15	-$22.91	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Mavericksavg 59¢	$28.91	$29.89	+$0.98	43% 198-262 (460)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$15.94	$19.06	+$3.13	47% 985-1122 (2107)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$24.49	$10.99	+$0.5	49% 1694-1746 (3440)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$5,250.66

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$564.81

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,480

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$640.1

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Wal1

Mavericks

Invested

$2,638

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$219.83

Record

—

17-0 (17)

hi774cCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,403.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$213.51

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

Anon455CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$565.71

Value

$486.14

PnL

-$79.57

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

LuckyLooCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$539.78

Value

$467.95

PnL

-$71.83

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Venusian

Mavericks

Invested

$162.58

Value

$195.76

PnL

+$33.18

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

Bagwell306CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$225

Value

$195

PnL

-$30

Record

33%

70-139 (209)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$164.58

Value

$156.11

PnL

-$8.47

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$117.547¢-$20

Mavericks$47.0849¢+$11.53

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$163.09

Value

$135.33

PnL

-$27.76

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$68.75

Value

$76.25

PnL

+$7.5

Record

18%

59-270 (329)

38791873984189CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$327.3

Value

$38.15

PnL

-$22.91

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

NatoAlfista<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$28.91

Value

$29.89

PnL

+$0.98

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

SnakeBall<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$15.94

Value

$19.06

PnL

+$3.13

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$24.49

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (12 on Cavaliers) disagree here.

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.