Mavericks vs. Cavaliers

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (36%) · Cavaliers at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks47¢Cavaliers53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$82.68

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks47%

Cavaliers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,999

Combined PnL-$49.29

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$792.61

Total Shares1,838

Combined PnL-$33.38

Cavaliers — 36%Mavericks — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scootergene	Cavaliersavg 54.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$37.28	4% 6-137 (143)
fyrsken	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$697	$703.16	+$6.16	51% 51-49 (100)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 54.6¢	$624.35	$579.02	-$12.43	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Mavericksavg 47.9¢	$284.16	$249.25	-$34.91	37% 872-1456 (2328)
PU purplegattoCTR	Mavericksavg 45.4¢	$202.71	$202.98	+$0.27	68% 2630-1225 (3855)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Mavericksavg 49.2¢	$190.47	$174.44	-$16.03	32% 93-197 (290)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 49.2¢	$133.83	$121.12	-$12.71
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 59¢	$56.64	$53.31	-$3.32
FO Forecastication2CTR	Mavericksavg 42¢	$155.82	$155.82	-$0	45% 230-283 (513)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 43¢	$89.22	$90.26	+$1.04	61% 82-52 (134)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 42¢	$80.22	$80.22	+$0	52% 507-475 (982)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cavaliersavg 54.5¢	$96.77	$33.99	-$5.74	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 49¢	$11.96	$12.08	+$0.12	32% 150-313 (463)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40¢	$1.91	$2	+$0.1	53% 1598-1443 (3041)

scootergene

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,457.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$37.28

Record

6-137 (143)

fyrsken

Cavaliers

Invested

$697

Value

$703.16

PnL

+$6.16

Record

51%

51-49 (100)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$624.35

Value

$579.02

PnL

-$12.43

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

topdogbigboiCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$284.16

Value

$249.25

PnL

-$34.91

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

purplegattoCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$202.71

Value

$202.98

PnL

+$0.27

Record

68%

2630-1225 (3855)

OddstormARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$190.47

Value

$174.44

PnL

-$16.03

Record

32%

93-197 (290)

Both legs:

Mavericks$133.8349.2¢-$12.71

Cavaliers$56.6459¢-$3.32

Forecastication2CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$155.82

Value

$155.82

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

230-283 (513)

Zzzz87CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$89.22

Value

$90.26

PnL

+$1.04

Record

61%

82-52 (134)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$80.22

Value

$80.22

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

507-475 (982)

Pan9X<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$96.77

Value

$33.99

PnL

-$5.74

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$11.96

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.12

Record

32%

150-313 (463)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.91

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.