Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 41.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$4.3K
$27.58
51.3¢ → 51¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$0.09 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
IC ic4cream | Overavg 52.2¢ | $955.06 | $952.26 | -$2.8 | 2% 11-448 (459) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $470 | +$35.8 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 51¢ | $191.11 | $191.11 | +$0 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $178.5 | +$0 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $135.03 | $129.52 | -$5.51 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
Invested
$2,425.19
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$955.06
Value
$952.26
PnL
-$2.8
Record
2%
11-448 (459)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,500.7
Value
$470
PnL
+$35.8
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$191.11
Value
$191.11
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$178.5
Value
$178.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
Invested
$135.03
Value
$129.52
PnL
-$5.51
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.