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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| guilttrip | HomeRunHazard | keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | nigiri99 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 86% (6–1, n=7) | 54% (361–305, n=666) | 46% (385–445, n=830) | 54% (312–261, n=573) |
| Consensus PnL | $13K | $444K | $502K | $425K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #751 | PM monthly #6 | PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #135 |
| Sides with the consensus | 28% (27 of 96 open) | 78% (130 of 167 open) | 63% (43 of 68 open) | 55% (56 of 101 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 7 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 100% of 194 at avg 53¢, ROI +47% | 100% of 280 at avg 51¢, ROI +44% | 65% of 504 at avg 53¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 0% of 2) | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 6% (won 100% of 17) | 14% (won 32% of 72) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 62) | 38% (won 100% of 105) | 24% (won 55% of 121) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 57% (won 100% of 4) | 59% (won 100% of 115) | 49% (won 100% of 137) | 44% (won 69% of 222) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 100% of 1) | 8% (won 100% of 15) | 8% (won 100% of 21) | 18% (won 98% of 89) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
32 on the same side, 23 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | guilttrip | HomeRunHazard | keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | nigiri99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Knicks | — | Knicks $5.1K | Pacers $20K | Knicks $490 |
| Spread: Hawks (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $4.4K | Bulls $13K | Hawks $2.5K |
| Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $7.5K | Over $11K | Over $148 |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 223.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $13K | Under $256 | Over $1.0K |
| Rangers vs. Canucks opposite sides · consensus Rangers | — | Rangers $2.3K | Canucks $10K | Canucks $508 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | — | Grizzlies $2.5K | Pelicans $7.6K | Grizzlies $200 |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Pacers | — | Knicks $4.1K | Knicks $397 | Pacers $21 |
| Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $408 | Under $1.6K | Over $597 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) same side · consensus Pelicans | — | Pelicans $2.1K | Pelicans $3.4K | Pelicans $220 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $6 | Over $4.7K | Over $302 |
| Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Bianca Andreescu opposite sides · consensus Bianca Andreescu | — | — | Bianca Andreescu $21K | Polona Hercog $55 |
| Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $6.6K | Under $5.3K | — |
| Slovenia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | — | Under $10K | Over $674 |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $4.0K | Under $2.8K | — |
| Thunder vs. Clippers opposite sides · consensus Thunder | — | Clippers $3.5K | — | Thunder $3.2K |
| Spread: UCLA (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Illinois | — | Illinois $128 | — | UCLA $6.5K |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $2.5K | Under $3.4K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | — | Under $1.1K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $2 | — | — | No $4.8K |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers | — | Trail Blazers $2.2K | — | Kings $1.6K |
| Predators vs. Golden Knights opposite sides · consensus Golden Knights | — | Predators $3.4K | — | Golden Knights $79 |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus UConn | — | UConn $2.2K | — | James Madison $1.2K |
| Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | — | Over $1.2K | Under $482 |
| California-San Diego Tritons vs. Utah State Aggies opposite sides · consensus Utah State Aggies | — | Utah State Aggies $739 | — | California-San Diego Tritons $60 |
| Will Kuwait vs. Syria end in a draw? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3 | — | No $135 | — |
| Spread: Knicks (-8.5) same side · consensus Pacers | — | Knicks $6 | Knicks $26K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $12K | — | Over $503 |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 224.5 same side · consensus Under | — | — | Under $12K | Under $411 |
| Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $5.1K | Over $4.8K | — |
| Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Over $5.4K | Over $1.9K |
| Hawks vs. Bulls same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $3.4K | — | Hawks $3.0K |
| Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 same side · consensus Under | — | — | Over $5.6K | Over $130 |
| Florida State vs. Pittsburgh same side · consensus Pittsburgh | — | Florida State $3.0K | Florida State $2.8K | — |
| Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $4.0K | — | Over $1.3K |
| Slovenia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Over $3.6K | Over $528 |
| Spread: Heat (-2.5) same side · consensus Cavaliers | — | Cavaliers $1.2K | — | Cavaliers $2.6K |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) same side · consensus Thunder | — | Thunder $1.4K | — | Thunder $2.1K |
| Anadolu Efes vs. Virtus Bologna same side · consensus Anadolu Efes | — | Anadolu Efes $3.2K | Anadolu Efes $18 | — |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Kings $644 | — | Kings $2.2K |
| Bucks vs. Magic same side · consensus Magic | — | Bucks $2.8K | — | Bucks $56 |
| Warriors vs. Spurs same side · consensus Spurs | — | Warriors $762 | — | Warriors $2.0K |
| Cavaliers vs. Heat same side · consensus Cavaliers | — | Cavaliers $855 | — | Cavaliers $1.4K |
| Florida State vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $1.4K | Over $789 | — |
| Jazz vs. Rockets same side · consensus Rockets | — | Jazz $1.2K | — | Jazz $116 |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt same side · consensus Alabama | — | Alabama $42 | — | Alabama $1.2K |
| Bulgaria vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Under $973 | Under $57 |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas same side · consensus South Carolina | — | South Carolina $267 | — | South Carolina $550 |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) same side · consensus Kings | — | Trail Blazers $3 | — | Trail Blazers $649 |
| Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $433 | — | Over $31 |
| Spread: Hawks (-4.5) same side · consensus Hawks | — | Hawks $380 | — | Hawks $54 |