Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 3.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 56¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 13

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$9.64

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares14,416

Combined PnL-$104.46

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,054

Combined PnL+$114.1

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 57.2¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$73.08	40% 137-202 (339)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$84.3	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 64.6¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$179.63	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.6¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$188.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$742.7	$751.55	+$8.84
P1 P1kaso	Underavg 57.6¢	$936.64	$919.44	-$17.19	14% 18-112 (130)
0xheavy888	Underavg 57.4¢	$637.84	$628.28	-$9.56	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 57¢	$456	$452	-$4	22% 266-965 (1231)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 58¢	$157.35	$149.1	-$1.25	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$138.58	$138.44	-$0.14	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 42.9¢	$136.55	$138.35	+$1.8	35% 735-1379 (2114)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 43¢	$136.36	$137.9	+$1.54	52% 471-427 (898)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 35¢	$98.39	$118.07	+$19.68	34% 735-1404 (2139)
NM NM-P	Underavg 58¢	$101.82	$100.94	-$0.88	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 58¢	$95.12	$95.12	-$0	47% 189-212 (401)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 41.2¢	$85.25	$90.11	+$4.86	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 57¢	$30.15	$32.07	+$1.92	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$23.94	$24.22	+$0.28	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 58¢	$21.89	$17.69	-$0.43	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$8.92	$10.7	+$1.78	35% 749-1385 (2134)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$5,850.52

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$73.08

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,931.03

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$84.3

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,458.86

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$179.63

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Under$1,716.1664.6¢-$188.47

Over$742.742¢+$8.84

P1kaso

Under

Invested

$936.64

Value

$919.44

PnL

-$17.19

Record

14%

18-112 (130)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$637.84

Value

$628.28

PnL

-$9.56

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$456

Value

$452

PnL

-$4

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$157.35

Value

$149.1

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$138.58

Value

$138.44

PnL

-$0.14

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$136.55

Value

$138.35

PnL

+$1.8

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$136.36

Value

$137.9

PnL

+$1.54

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$98.39

Value

$118.07

PnL

+$19.68

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$101.82

Value

$100.94

PnL

-$0.88

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$95.12

Value

$95.12

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.25

Value

$90.11

PnL

+$4.86

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$30.15

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$1.92

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.94

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$0.28

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$21.89

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$0.43

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.92

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$1.78

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.