Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Knicks (55%). 9 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

9 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (39%) · Pacers at 46¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 14

Knicks55¢Pacers45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 39%

Total Value

$55.4K

Combined PnL

-$199.57

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 45.5¢

-13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 23 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks55%

Pacers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers9 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares55,246

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Knicks14 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares55,906

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Pacers — 39%Knicks — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKnicks 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 59% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Pacersavg 52.6¢	$22.6K	$19.5K	$-3.0K	53% 535-466 (1001)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Knicksavg 47¢	$15.0K	$17.3K	+$2.2K	51% 3819-3610 (7429)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Knicksavg 50¢	$7.0K	$7.6K	+$561	49% 611-642 (1253)
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 48.1¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$443.91	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
HG hgawxCTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$353.88	6% 3-49 (52)
FE fekefeeCTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$102.8	16% 8-43 (51)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Pacersavg 51¢	$600	$541.18	-$58.82	7% 22-291 (313)
LI LightParadox	Knicksavg 47¢	$404.79	$465.08	+$60.29	35% 749-1385 (2134)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Knicksavg 53¢	$389.89	$397.25	+$7.36	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MA MadridTime	Knicksavg 47¢	$158.62	$182.24	+$23.62	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI Limousin	Knicksavg 48¢	$105.75	$118.97	+$13.22	35% 735-1379 (2114)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$80.48	$79.6	-$0.87	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Knicksavg 50¢	$37	$39.96	+$2.96	45% 214-259 (473)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$34.31	$39.42	+$5.11	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 53¢	$389.56	$32.1	+$8.28	53% 1030-921 (1951)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$24.38	$21.16	-$3.22	52% 471-427 (898)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 50.8¢	$15.2	$16.15	+$0.95	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Knicksavg 53¢	$14.84	$15.12	+$0.28	55% 248-199 (447)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pacersavg 47.7¢	$14.3	$13.8	-$0.5	53% 388-339 (727)
SE sentrio<$100	Knicksavg 52¢	$7.8	$8.1	+$0.3	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Pacersavg 46¢	$6.57	$6.5	-$0.07	33% 251-499 (750)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.3	-$0.35	40% 584-893 (1477)
SU suntori<$100	Knicksavg 54¢	$1.9	$1.92	+$0.02	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$22,566.35

Value

$19.5K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Knicks

Invested

$15,021.55

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

51%

3819-3610 (7429)

Multicoloured-Serf

Knicks

Invested

$7,012.51

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$561

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$3,611.5

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$443.91

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

hgawxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$4,511

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$353.88

Record

3-49 (52)

fekefeeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,285

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$102.8

Record

16%

8-43 (51)

PIPIZINCTR

Pacers

Invested

$600

Value

$541.18

PnL

-$58.82

Record

22-291 (313)

LightParadox

Knicks

Invested

$404.79

Value

$465.08

PnL

+$60.29

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Knicks

Invested

$389.89

Value

$397.25

PnL

+$7.36

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

MadridTime

Knicks

Invested

$158.62

Value

$182.24

PnL

+$23.62

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Limousin

Knicks

Invested

$105.75

Value

$118.97

PnL

+$13.22

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

NM-PCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$80.48

Value

$79.6

PnL

-$0.87

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Forecastication2<$100

Knicks

Invested

$37

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$2.96

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

ferdinand2<$100

Knicks

Invested

$34.31

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$5.11

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$389.56

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$8.28

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$24.38

Value

$21.16

PnL

-$3.22

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$15.2

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Knicks

Invested

$14.84

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$14.3

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

sentrio<$100

Knicks

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GC-PCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.07

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.35

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

suntori<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

9 of 23 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKnicks 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 59% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.