Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

7 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (32%) · Pelicans at 56¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies45¢Pelicans55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 32%

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

-$182.78

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 55.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

7 of 22 top traders (32%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies45%

Pelicans56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans7 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares31,480

Combined PnL+$910.17

Grizzlies15 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares23,609

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Pelicans — 32%Grizzlies — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

32% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Pelicansavg 55¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$0	9% 21-214 (235)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$6.1K	$5.5K	-$594.79	53% 535-466 (1001)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Pelicansavg 52¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$185.64	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Pelicansavg 50.3¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$282.82	5% 9-172 (181)
FO Forecastication2	Pelicansavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$191.23	45% 214-259 (473)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pelicansavg 48.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$178.5	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$301	2% 11-509 (520)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$960	$900	-$60	13% 17-116 (133)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$712.83	$628.96	-$83.86	50% 96-95 (191)
TX txwd9991CTR	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$548.4	$548.4	-$0	5% 4-82 (86)
LI LightParadox	Pelicansavg 49¢	$457.26	$513.25	+$55.99	35% 749-1385 (2134)
VeryLucky888CTR	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$710	$431.16	-$14.84	53% 1030-921 (1951)
nigiri99	Pelicansavg 51¢	$204	$220	+$16	52% 471-427 (898)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$180.68	$180.68	-$0	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
NM NM-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$171.5	$157.5	-$14	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$171.5	$157.5	-$14	33% 251-499 (750)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 45.5¢	$96.69	$96.09	-$0.6	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46.9¢	$79.68	$76.42	-$3.25	48% 677-745 (1422)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$79.38	$72.9	-$6.48	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$38.4	$38	-$0.4	53% 388-339 (727)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$20.33	$10.4	+$0.27	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 45¢	$3.65	$3.65	-$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Pelicans

Invested

$5,860.23

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

21-214 (235)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$6,138.16

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$594.79

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Pelicans

Invested

$3,217.77

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$185.64

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

MAGATheeStallion

Pelicans

Invested

$2,999.82

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$282.82

Record

9-172 (181)

Forecastication2

Pelicans

Invested

$2,235.62

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$191.23

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

HomeRunHazard

Pelicans

Invested

$1,954.48

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$178.5

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,236

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$301

Record

11-509 (520)

DolphinBallerCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$960

Value

$900

PnL

-$60

Record

13%

17-116 (133)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$712.83

Value

$628.96

PnL

-$83.86

Record

50%

96-95 (191)

txwd9991CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$548.4

Value

$548.4

PnL

-$0

Record

4-82 (86)

LightParadox

Pelicans

Invested

$457.26

Value

$513.25

PnL

+$55.99

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

VeryLucky888CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$710

Value

$431.16

PnL

-$14.84

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

nigiri99

Pelicans

Invested

$204

Value

$220

PnL

+$16

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$180.68

Value

$180.68

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

NM-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$171.5

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$14

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$171.5

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$14

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

LimousinCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$96.69

Value

$96.09

PnL

-$0.6

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$79.68

Value

$76.42

PnL

-$3.25

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$79.38

Value

$72.9

PnL

-$6.48

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$38.4

Value

$38

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$20.33

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

7 of 22 top traders (32%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

32% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.