Jazz vs. Rockets
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (38%) · Rockets at 92¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
8
Rockets 38%
$6.3K
$425.7
85.2¢ → 91.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HY hydra1248 | Rocketsavg 91.3¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$6.31 | 78% 125-35 (160) |
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b | Rocketsavg 79¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$423.52 | — 10-3 (13) |
 nigiri99CTR | Jazzavg 9¢ | $465.45 | $59.93 | -$3.52 | 52% 352-329 (681) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Rocketsavg 84¢ | $11.93 | $11.94 | +$0.01 | 27% 52-141 (193) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Jazzavg 9¢ | $5.76 | $5.76 | +$0 | 50% 3542-3501 (7043) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 9.8¢ | $5.9 | $5.4 | -$0.5 | 58% 3336-2404 (5740) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 9¢ | $4.05 | $4.05 | +$0 | 49% 1077-1133 (2210) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 9¢ | $1.96 | $1.85 | -$0.11 | 68% 2611-1203 (3814) |
Invested
$3,093.88
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$6.31
Record
78%
125-35 (160)
Invested
$2,676.66
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$423.52
Record
—
10-3 (13)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$465.45
Value
$59.93
PnL
-$3.52
Record
52%
352-329 (681)
Invested
$11.93
Value
$11.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
27%
52-141 (193)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3542-3501 (7043)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.5
Record
58%
3336-2404 (5740)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1077-1133 (2210)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.11
Record
68%
2611-1203 (3814)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.