Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Bianca Andreescu

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (72%) · Bianca Andreescu at 85¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 20

Polona Hercog16¢Bianca Andreescu84¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bianca Andreescu

Consensus Traders

Bianca Andreescu 72%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

$718.9

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 84.5¢

+8% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog16%

Bianca Andreescu85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bianca Andreescu18 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares31,759

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Polona Hercog7 traders

Total Value$898.76

Total Shares4,955

Combined PnL-$403.71

Bianca Andreescu — 72%Polona Hercog — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePolona Hercog 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBianca Andreescu 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bianca Andreescuavg 79.7¢	$12.5K	$13.1K	+$580.84	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
LI LightParadox	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	+$194.18	35% 749-1385 (2134)
RN1	Bianca Andreescuavg 79.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$120.78	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
VeryLucky888	Bianca Andreescuavg 75.2¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	+$12.14	53% 1030-921 (1951)
65 6512395314597884	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.38	50% 3670-3617 (7287)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.3¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	+$35.05	48% 423-457 (880)
TH thirdt1me	Bianca Andreescuavg 78.4¢	$962.12	$1.0K	+$61.59	47% 212-243 (455)
EU Eulhunter	Bianca Andreescuavg 73.3¢	$857.63	$914.32	+$56.68	50% 167-168 (335)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$833.19	$848.33	+$15.14	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$567.76	$567.76	-$0
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 23.7¢	$265.43	$280.57	+$15.14
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$832.88	$848.01	+$15.14	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$567.57	$567.57	-$0
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 23.7¢	$265.31	$280.45	+$15.14
0xheavy888	Bianca Andreescuavg 76.7¢	$769.05	$752.24	-$16.81	53% 388-339 (727)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Polona Hercogavg 26.8¢	$1.1K	$653.02	-$408.55	44% 391-495 (886)
MO mouzsynapse	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$534.33	$548.97	+$14.64	41% 91-132 (223)
TH thestingsnake	Bianca Andreescuavg 75¢	$450	$450	+$0	33% 203-420 (623)
1L 1lovejump	Bianca Andreescuavg 79.8¢	$363.4	$372.55	+$17.55	38% 113-184 (297)
BA babybells	Bianca Andreescuavg 83¢	$348.56	$354.92	+$6.36	29% 185-458 (643)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 23¢	$412.47	$308.45	-$84.19	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 23¢	$303.15	$204.25	-$98.9
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$90.02	$104.2	+$14.71
VI vibing123	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$230.68	$237	+$6.32	62% 1124-676 (1800)
EF efntrick	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.5¢	$288.16	$229.96	+$2.6	44% 76-98 (174)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 76.2¢	$200.99	$204.45	+$3.46	56% 3978-3112 (7090)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 76.2¢	$157.62	$154.18	-$3.44
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 22¢	$43.37	$50.27	+$6.9
DV dv-pmCTR	Polona Hercogavg 24¢	$106.8	$111.25	+$4.45	40% 17-26 (43)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Polona Hercogavg 22.7¢	$50.27	$55.25	+$4.98	52% 471-427 (898)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Polona Hercogavg 25¢	$49.25	$49.25	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.5¢	$71.4	$32.92	+$1.15	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Polona Hercogavg 22¢	$24.21	$19.18	-$5.03	34% 735-1404 (2139)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$12,475.03

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$580.84

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

LightParadox

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$2,738.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$194.18

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

RN1

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$2,164.08

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$120.78

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

VeryLucky888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,960

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.14

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

6512395314597884

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,072.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.38

Record

50%

3670-3617 (7287)

CandleHammerDrums

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,370.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.05

Record

48%

423-457 (880)

thirdt1me

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$962.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$61.59

Record

47%

212-243 (455)

Eulhunter

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$857.63

Value

$914.32

PnL

+$56.68

Record

50%

167-168 (335)

NM-PARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$833.19

Value

$848.33

PnL

+$15.14

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$567.7675¢-$0

Polona Hercog$265.4323.7¢+$15.14

GC-PARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$832.88

Value

$848.01

PnL

+$15.14

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$567.5775¢-$0

Polona Hercog$265.3123.7¢+$15.14

0xheavy888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$769.05

Value

$752.24

PnL

-$16.81

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,061.57

Value

$653.02

PnL

-$408.55

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

mouzsynapse

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$534.33

Value

$548.97

PnL

+$14.64

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

thestingsnake

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$450

Value

$450

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

203-420 (623)

1lovejump

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$363.4

Value

$372.55

PnL

+$17.55

Record

38%

113-184 (297)

babybells

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$348.56

Value

$354.92

PnL

+$6.36

Record

29%

185-458 (643)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$412.47

Value

$308.45

PnL

-$84.19

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$303.1523¢-$98.9

Bianca Andreescu$90.0273¢+$14.71

vibing123

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$230.68

Value

$237

PnL

+$6.32

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

efntrick

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$288.16

Value

$229.96

PnL

+$2.6

Record

44%

76-98 (174)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$200.99

Value

$204.45

PnL

+$3.46

Record

56%

3978-3112 (7090)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$157.6276.2¢-$3.44

Polona Hercog$43.3722¢+$6.9

dv-pmCTR

Polona Hercog

Invested

$106.8

Value

$111.25

PnL

+$4.45

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$50.27

Value

$55.25

PnL

+$4.98

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$49.25

Value

$49.25

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Pan9X<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$71.4

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$1.15

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

VenusianCTR<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$24.21

Value

$19.18

PnL

-$5.03

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePolona Hercog 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBianca Andreescu 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bianca Andreescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.