Rangers vs. Canucks

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (47%) · Rangers at 67¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 14

Rangers67¢Canucks33¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rangers

Consensus Traders

Rangers 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.1K

Combined PnL

-$81.56

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rangers67%

Canucks34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers8 traders

Total Value$33.9K

Total Shares51,033

Combined PnL-$429.95

Canucks9 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares46,485

Combined PnL+$348.39

Rangers — 47%Canucks — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCanucks 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Canucks 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Rangersavg 67.7¢	$20.0K	$19.6K	-$368.2	— 11-4 (15)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Canucksavg 33¢	$10.3K	$10.5K	+$156.4	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
BA Babooou	Rangersavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$50	60% 12-8 (20)
RO royalestake	Rangersavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$50	7% 15-191 (206)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Canucksavg 32¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$113.84	53% 105-94 (199)
RO roldyCTR	Canucksavg 32¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$60	39% 11-17 (28)
fyrsken	Rangersavg 65¢	$696.85	$718.29	+$21.44	52% 46-43 (89)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Rangersavg 66¢	$591.1	$603.4	+$12.3	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
└ Rangers leg	Rangersavg 66¢	$383.42	$389.23	+$5.81
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 32¢	$207.68	$214.17	+$6.49
0xheavy888CTR	Canucksavg 31.8¢	$253.99	$263.99	+$10	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189	Rangersavg 67¢	$1.1K	$180.36	+$9.57	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
WE westing.v1CTR	Canucksavg 32¢	$110.06	$113.5	+$3.44	22% 24-84 (108)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Canucksavg 32¢	$75.52	$77.88	+$2.36	47% 189-212 (401)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Canucksavg 32¢	$57.8	$59.61	+$1.81	35% 749-1385 (2134)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Rangersavg 67¢	$52.88	$52.48	-$0.39	61% 1003-631 (1634)
GH ghorrock<$100	Rangersavg 65.2¢	$45.34	$35.72	+$1.01	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9X	Rangersavg 66¢	$173.83	$28.76	+$6.62	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Canucksavg 32¢	$16	$16.5	+$0.5	39% 1080-1659 (2739)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Canucksavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.65	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Rangers

Invested

$20,000.3

Value

$19.6K

PnL

-$368.2

Record

—

11-4 (15)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Canucks

Invested

$10,322.45

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$156.4

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Babooou

Rangers

Invested

$6,700

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$50

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

royalestake

Rangers

Invested

$6,699.99

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$50

Record

15-191 (206)

taylorsversionCTR

Canucks

Invested

$2,428.48

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$113.84

Record

53%

105-94 (199)

roldyCTR

Canucks

Invested

$1,920

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$60

Record

39%

11-17 (28)

fyrsken

Rangers

Invested

$696.85

Value

$718.29

PnL

+$21.44

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

purplegattoARB<$100

Rangers

Invested

$591.1

Value

$603.4

PnL

+$12.3

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

Both legs:

Rangers$383.4266¢+$5.81

Canucks$207.6832¢+$6.49

0xheavy888CTR

Canucks

Invested

$253.99

Value

$263.99

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189

Rangers

Invested

$1,103.37

Value

$180.36

PnL

+$9.57

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

westing.v1CTR

Canucks

Invested

$110.06

Value

$113.5

PnL

+$3.44

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$75.52

Value

$77.88

PnL

+$2.36

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$57.8

Value

$59.61

PnL

+$1.81

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

darkumbreon88<$100

Rangers

Invested

$52.88

Value

$52.48

PnL

-$0.39

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

ghorrock<$100

Rangers

Invested

$45.34

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9X

Rangers

Invested

$173.83

Value

$28.76

PnL

+$6.62

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$16

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

39%

1080-1659 (2739)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCanucks 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Canucks 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.