Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (67%) · Hawks at 60¢ · $450 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
6
Hawks 67%
$450.01
$6.47
58.1¢ → 59.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Hawksavg 58¢ | $373.99 | $380.39 | +$6.4 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Hawksavg 59¢ | $53.69 | $53.69 | -$0 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Bullsavg 40¢ | $4.8 | $4.92 | +$0.12 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
SU suntori<$100 | Hawksavg 59¢ | $4.76 | $4.8 | +$0.04 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Bullsavg 41¢ | $3.31 | $3.27 | -$0.04 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hawksavg 60¢ | $3 | $2.95 | -$0.05 | 40% 584-893 (1477) |
Invested
$373.99
Value
$380.39
PnL
+$6.4
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$53.69
Value
$53.69
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.04
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3.31
Value
$3.27
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
40%
584-893 (1477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.