Anadolu Efes vs. Virtus Bologna

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Anadolu Efes (50%) · Anadolu Efes at 70¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 13

Anadolu Efes70¢Virtus Bologna30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Anadolu Efes

Consensus Traders

Anadolu Efes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$235.34

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAnadolu Efes at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anadolu Efes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Anadolu Efes70%

Virtus Bologna31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anadolu Efes6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares7,641

Combined PnL-$8.69

Virtus Bologna6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares9,730

Combined PnL-$226.65

Anadolu Efes — 50%Virtus Bologna — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Anadolu Efesavg 69.6¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	+$24.36	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
SN SnakeBall	Anadolu Efesavg 72¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$33.9	48% 677-745 (1422)
VeryLucky888CTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 31.6¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$107.77	53% 1030-921 (1951)
IS ismail40CTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 30¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$100	4% 6-131 (137)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 70¢	$821.08	$852.99	+$31.91	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 70¢	$458.5	$461.78	+$3.27
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 27.3¢	$362.58	$391.21	+$28.63
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 55.4¢	$664	$666	+$2	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 55.4¢	$401.5	$511.12	+$109.62
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 50¢	$262.5	$154.88	-$107.63
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Anadolu Efesavg 70¢	$560	$556	-$4	22% 266-965 (1231)
SU suntoriCTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 31¢	$483.51	$467.91	-$15.6	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
tradecraft	Anadolu Efesavg 70¢	$129.98	$134.62	+$4.64	26% 250-703 (953)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 30¢	$41.64	$39.56	-$2.08	41% 137-198 (335)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 71¢	$28.4	$28.2	-$0.2	82% 537-115 (652)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 70¢	$17.16	$17.57	+$0.41	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 33¢	$47.27	$10.37	-$1.9	55% 248-199 (447)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.9	+$0.7	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

HomeRunHazard

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$3,987.8

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$24.36

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

SnakeBall

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$1,654.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$33.9

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

VeryLucky888CTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$1,548.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$107.77

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

ismail40CTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$1,199.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

6-131 (137)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$821.08

Value

$852.99

PnL

+$31.91

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Anadolu Efes$458.570¢+$3.27

Virtus Bologna$362.5827.3¢+$28.63

NotJumpARB<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$664

Value

$666

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Anadolu Efes$401.555.4¢+$109.62

Virtus Bologna$262.550¢-$107.63

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$560

Value

$556

PnL

-$4

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

suntoriCTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$483.51

Value

$467.91

PnL

-$15.6

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

tradecraft

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$129.98

Value

$134.62

PnL

+$4.64

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$41.64

Value

$39.56

PnL

-$2.08

Record

41%

137-198 (335)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$28.4

Value

$28.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

82%

537-115 (652)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$17.16

Value

$17.57

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$47.27

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$1.9

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

AvoidAnadolu Efes at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anadolu Efes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anadolu Efes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.