Thunder vs. Clippers

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (63%) · Thunder at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Thunder76¢Clippers24¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 63%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$3.33

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 75.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder76%

Clippers25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,696

Combined PnL-$10.57

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$67.16

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$7.24

Thunder — 63%Clippers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b	Thunderavg 75.5¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$20.31	— 3-1 (4)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 78¢	$558.48	$544.16	-$14.32	50% 3423-3417 (6840)
RollAwayTheDew	Thunderavg 78¢	$535.08	$521.36	-$13.72	14% 39-249 (288)
PU purplegatto	Thunderavg 76¢	$142.34	$141.4	-$0.94	69% 2600-1194 (3794)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Clippersavg 24¢	$39.43	$40.25	+$0.82	47% 394-451 (845)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Thunderavg 80.2¢	$36.37	$34.47	-$1.9	25% 44-135 (179)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Clippersavg 19.3¢	$19.01	$23.7	+$4.69	48% 145-156 (301)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Clippersavg 11¢	$1.47	$3.2	+$1.73	12% 34-241 (275)

0x17bec72f65b07cacd12000a0ba0ba162b6b7c52b

Thunder

Invested

$3,066.09

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$20.31

Record

—

3-1 (4)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$558.48

Value

$544.16

PnL

-$14.32

Record

50%

3423-3417 (6840)

RollAwayTheDew

Thunder

Invested

$535.08

Value

$521.36

PnL

-$13.72

Record

14%

39-249 (288)

purplegatto

Thunder

Invested

$142.34

Value

$141.4

PnL

-$0.94

Record

69%

2600-1194 (3794)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$39.43

Value

$40.25

PnL

+$0.82

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

Oddstorm<$100

Thunder

Invested

$36.37

Value

$34.47

PnL

-$1.9

Record

25%

44-135 (179)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$19.01

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$4.69

Record

48%

145-156 (301)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1.47

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$1.73

Record

12%

34-241 (275)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.