Cavaliers vs. Heat

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (75%) · Heat at 55¢ · $894 held · ends Nov 14

Cavaliers46¢Heat54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$893.89

Combined PnL

$6.16

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers46%

Heat55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat6 traders

Total Value$439.99

Total Shares785

Combined PnL+$22.96

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$232.06

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$16.8

Heat — 75%Cavaliers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Heatavg 57.5¢	$240.3	$225.85	-$14.45	68% 2613-1210 (3823)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cavaliersavg 48.3¢	$231.85	$220.8	-$11.05	50% 3550-3507 (7057)
38 38791873984189	Heatavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$139.48	-$38.6	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$120.25	$121	+$0.75	47% 508-580 (1088)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$79.75	$79.75	+$0
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 54¢	$40.5	$41.25	+$0.75
OD OddstormARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 46.7¢	$127.66	$100.85	+$0	28% 56-145 (201)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46.7¢	$81.09	$79.95	-$0.05
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 52¢	$19.76	$20.9	+$0.05
RL RLWG<$100	Heatavg 50.3¢	$27.7	$30	+$2.3	66% 1806-939 (2745)
nigiri99	Heatavg 51¢	$983.98	$22.69	+$73.71	52% 372-342 (714)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Heatavg 54¢	$14.36	$14.36	+$0	29% 105-255 (360)
PA Pan9XCTR	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$106.09	$11.26	-$5.75	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
SU suntori<$100	Heatavg 55¢	$7.61	$7.61	+$0	47% 1724-1982 (3706)

purplegatto

Heat

Invested

$240.3

Value

$225.85

PnL

-$14.45

Record

68%

2613-1210 (3823)

6512395314597884CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$231.85

Value

$220.8

PnL

-$11.05

Record

50%

3550-3507 (7057)

38791873984189

Heat

Invested

$1,123.53

Value

$139.48

PnL

-$38.6

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$120.25

Value

$121

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$79.7546¢+$0

Heat$40.554¢+$0.75

OddstormARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$127.66

Value

$100.85

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

56-145 (201)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$81.0946.7¢-$0.05

Heat$19.7652¢+$0.05

RLWG<$100

Heat

Invested

$27.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$2.3

Record

66%

1806-939 (2745)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$983.98

Value

$22.69

PnL

+$73.71

Record

52%

372-342 (714)

BoomLaLa<$100

Heat

Invested

$14.36

Value

$14.36

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Pan9XCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$106.09

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$5.75

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

suntori<$100

Heat

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.