Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$338.28

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 53.5¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 16 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares14,154

Combined PnL+$435.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,558

Combined PnL-$96.9

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (15 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.6¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$258.76	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99	Overavg 51.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$29.43	52% 471-427 (898)
FU Fujimi888CTR	Underavg 51¢	$976.08	$899.52	-$76.56	— 4-9 (13)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$690.1	$706.33	+$16.23	35% 749-1385 (2134)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$378.63	$401.35	+$22.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$311.47	$304.98	-$6.49
GA Gaditima	Overavg 49¢	$583.38	$631	+$47.62	47% 224-251 (475)
SE sentrio	Overavg 49.5¢	$498.93	$527.88	+$28.95	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$501.68	$503.11	+$1.43	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$323.18	$340.36	+$17.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$162.75	-$15.75
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$449.41	$450.66	+$1.25	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$264.25	$280.88	+$16.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$185.16	$169.79	-$15.37
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 49¢	$398.31	$430.83	+$32.52	48% 677-745 (1422)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 49¢	$357.7	$386.9	+$29.2	45% 214-259 (473)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$339.45	$342.54	+$3.09	34% 735-1404 (2139)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$373.74	$235	-$15	53% 1030-921 (1951)
FO forecastication4	Overavg 51¢	$163.2	$169.6	+$6.4	31% 134-299 (433)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$162.81	$154.75	-$8.06	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 49¢	$95.61	$103.41	+$7.8	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54¢	$516.38	$34.1	-$5.39	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.5	$23.5	-$1	53% 388-339 (727)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 52¢	$26.47	$20.7	-$0.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$11	$11.63	+$0.63	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,766.62

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$258.76

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,262.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.43

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

Fujimi888CTR

Under

Invested

$976.08

Value

$899.52

PnL

-$76.56

Record

—

4-9 (13)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$690.1

Value

$706.33

PnL

+$16.23

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Both legs:

Over$378.6350¢+$22.72

Under$311.4748¢-$6.49

Gaditima

Over

Invested

$583.38

Value

$631

PnL

+$47.62

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$498.93

Value

$527.88

PnL

+$28.95

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$501.68

Value

$503.11

PnL

+$1.43

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Over$323.1850.8¢+$17.18

Under$178.551¢-$15.75

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$449.41

Value

$450.66

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Over$264.2550.3¢+$16.63

Under$185.1650.7¢-$15.37

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$398.31

Value

$430.83

PnL

+$32.52

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$357.7

Value

$386.9

PnL

+$29.2

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$339.45

Value

$342.54

PnL

+$3.09

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$373.74

Value

$235

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$163.2

Value

$169.6

PnL

+$6.4

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$162.81

Value

$154.75

PnL

-$8.06

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$95.61

Value

$103.41

PnL

+$7.8

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$516.38

Value

$34.1

PnL

-$5.39

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.5

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$26.47

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 16 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (15 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.