Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

4 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 55¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 13

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 17%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.5K

Combined PnL

-$272.23

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 23 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares34,182

Combined PnL-$381.63

Over19 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares37,612

Combined PnL+$109.4

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Underavg 55.7¢	$18.3K	$18.0K	-$380.14	63% 247-148 (395)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$73.95	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.7¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$63.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$10.39
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$48.13	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
RN1CTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$50	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$47.73	49% 611-642 (1253)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$30.45	— 8-4 (12)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.25	47% 189-212 (401)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.58	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$842.54	$842.32	-$0.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$259.72	$269.52	+$9.8
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.14	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 45¢	$832.5	$832.5	+$0	33% 251-499 (750)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 47¢	$748.77	$652.21	-$18.68	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 44.6¢	$626.02	$632.03	+$6.01	43% 808-1065 (1873)
nigiri99	Underavg 55¢	$486.11	$481.78	-$4.33	52% 471-427 (898)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 44¢	$406.84	$416.08	+$9.25	41% 91-132 (223)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$356	$360	+$4	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 46¢	$368	$360	-$8	22% 266-965 (1231)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$270.83	$273.44	+$2.61	56% 307-245 (552)
JO jole24	Underavg 53¢	$169.23	$172.42	+$3.19	45% 18-22 (40)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 44.4¢	$503.35	$73.88	+$10.82	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.4¢	$52.16	$53.51	+$20.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$20.46	$20.37	-$10.11
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44.6¢	$63.79	$42.1	+$0.91	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$37.98	$37.98	+$0	41% 137-198 (335)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$16	$16	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 56¢	$9.97	$9.61	-$0.36	51% 46-45 (91)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.8	$8.61	-$0.19	36% 761-1361 (2122)

Woaifacai

Under

Invested

$18,343.9

Value

$18.0K

PnL

-$380.14

Record

63%

247-148 (395)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,145.7

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$73.95

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Over$3,397.9844.7¢+$63.56

Under$2,747.7154.3¢+$10.39

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$4,474.84

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$48.13

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$47.73

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Over

Invested

$1,340

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.45

Record

—

8-4 (12)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$1,277.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.25

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,211.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,102.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.58

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,095.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.14

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$832.5

Value

$832.5

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$748.77

Value

$652.21

PnL

-$18.68

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$626.02

Value

$632.03

PnL

+$6.01

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$486.11

Value

$481.78

PnL

-$4.33

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$406.84

Value

$416.08

PnL

+$9.25

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$356

Value

$360

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$368

Value

$360

PnL

-$8

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$270.83

Value

$273.44

PnL

+$2.61

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

jole24

Under

Invested

$169.23

Value

$172.42

PnL

+$3.19

Record

45%

18-22 (40)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$503.35

Value

$73.88

PnL

+$10.82

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Both legs:

Over$52.1644.4¢+$20.93

Under$20.4654.7¢-$10.11

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.79

Value

$42.1

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.98

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

137-198 (335)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$16

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$0.36

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 23 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.