Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 53¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 14

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$11.88

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares24,778

Combined PnL+$135.2

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares22,834

Combined PnL-$123.33

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.9¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$79.04	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 52¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$59.77	49% 516-536 (1052)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$55.69	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$49.28	34% 43-83 (126)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$883.83	$865.79	-$18.04	49% 611-642 (1253)
NM NM-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$180.25	-$1.75	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$180.25	-$1.75	33% 251-499 (750)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 52¢	$24.37	$24.37	+$0	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$10.78	$10.78	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8	$7.68	-$0.32	35% 735-1379 (2114)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$7.7	$7.6	-$0.1	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$6,599.1

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$79.04

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$6,215.58

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$59.77

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$5,345.76

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$55.69

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,731.36

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$49.28

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$883.83

Value

$865.79

PnL

-$18.04

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$180.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$180.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$0.32

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.