Spread: Heat (-2.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (75%) · Cavaliers at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
8
Cavaliers 75%
$6.8K
-$17.11
49.7¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
AP AppleTiiimeCTR | Heatavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$50 | 50% 96-95 (191) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$24.15 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $245 | $220.59 | +$5.59 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $184.26 | $186.1 | +$1.84 | 49% 611-642 (1253) |
 fyrskenCTR | Heatavg 49¢ | $123.48 | $124.74 | +$1.26 | 52% 46-43 (89) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $25.32 | $25.32 | +$0 | 44% 391-495 (886) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.5 | +$0.05 | 40% 584-893 (1477) |
nigiri99Invested
$2,559.5
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
50%
96-95 (191)
Invested
$1,197.17
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$24.15
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
VeryLucky888Invested
$245
Value
$220.59
PnL
+$5.59
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$184.26
Value
$186.1
PnL
+$1.84
Record
49%
611-642 (1253)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$123.48
Value
$124.74
PnL
+$1.26
Record
52%
46-43 (89)
Invested
$25.32
Value
$25.32
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
391-495 (886)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
584-893 (1477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.