Slovenia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13

Over64¢Under36¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$64.79

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,288

Combined PnL-$11.33

Under12 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,522

Combined PnL+$76.13

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 64¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$0	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 35.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$38.37	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 35¢	$573.22	$589.6	+$16.38	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
nigiri99	Overavg 65¢	$536.25	$528	-$8.25	52% 471-427 (898)
timebrotime	Overavg 64¢	$394.41	$391.33	-$3.08	— 0-2 (2)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 35.2¢	$207.81	$215.39	+$7.58	43% 808-1065 (1873)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 36¢	$182.53	$185.07	+$2.54	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 36¢	$180	$182.5	+$2.5	33% 251-499 (750)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 36¢	$144	$144	+$0	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 35.5¢	$135.23	$139.07	+$3.83	47% 189-212 (401)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 35.6¢	$123.51	$126.64	+$3.13	56% 307-245 (552)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$31.75	$32.57	+$0.82	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 33.5¢	$13.91	$14.95	+$1.05	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$5.32	$5.25	-$0.07	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 64¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.69	$1.69	+$0	48% 677-745 (1422)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,737.3

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,064.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$38.37

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$573.22

Value

$589.6

PnL

+$16.38

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$536.25

Value

$528

PnL

-$8.25

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

timebrotime

Over

Invested

$394.41

Value

$391.33

PnL

-$3.08

Record

—

0-2 (2)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$207.81

Value

$215.39

PnL

+$7.58

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$182.53

Value

$185.07

PnL

+$2.54

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$180

Value

$182.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$144

Value

$144

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$135.23

Value

$139.07

PnL

+$3.83

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$123.51

Value

$126.64

PnL

+$3.13

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.75

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$0.82

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.91

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.