Hawks vs. Bulls

7 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (30%) · Hawks at 72¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Hawks72¢Bulls28¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$46.23

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 23 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks72%

Bulls28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares9,311

Combined PnL+$69.95

Bulls16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares11,250

Combined PnL-$116.17

Hawks — 30%Bulls — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 64% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 70.2¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$83.56	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 71.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$13.73	52% 471-427 (898)
PU purplegattoCTR	Bullsavg 28.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$37.4	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Hawksavg 72¢	$875.47	$865.47	-$10	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 72¢	$540	$540	+$0
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 28.9¢	$335.47	$325.47	-$10
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 30¢	$638.24	$560	-$39.84	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bullsavg 29.8¢	$417.93	$393.22	-$24.71	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bullsavg 29¢	$360.01	$350.01	-$10	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 29¢	$290	$280	-$10
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 72¢	$70.01	$70.01	+$0
LI LimousinCTR	Bullsavg 29.7¢	$273.75	$262.39	-$11.36	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SU suntori	Hawksavg 72.7¢	$213.31	$211.29	-$2.02	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bullsavg 28¢	$898.92	$185.16	+$4.74	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Bullsavg 29¢	$182.55	$176.26	-$6.29	36% 761-1361 (2122)
IC ic4cream<$100	Hawksavg 70¢	$70.7	$72.72	+$2.02	5% 24-459 (483)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bullsavg 29¢	$71.11	$68.66	-$2.45	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Bullsavg 28¢	$36.46	$36.46	+$0	22% 24-84 (108)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$27.57	$25.73	-$1.84	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 28¢	$15.75	$15.75	+$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$12.6	$11.76	-$0.84	58% 3426-2517 (5943)
OD OddstormCTR	Bullsavg 29.4¢	$179.33	$9.7	+$2.33	30% 77-180 (257)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 28.3¢	$56.35	$9.18	+$1.98	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Hawksavg 72¢	$7.27	$7.27	+$0	64% 177-101 (278)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bullsavg 29¢	$6.96	$6.72	-$0.24	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bullsavg 29¢	$6.96	$6.72	-$0.24	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Bullsavg 28¢	$5.6	$5.6	+$0	53% 388-339 (727)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hawksavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.6	+$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)
HY hydra1248<$100	Hawksavg 70¢	$2.18	$2.24	+$0.06	76% 147-47 (194)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$3,337.81

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$83.56

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$2,990.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$13.73

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

purplegattoCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,610.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$37.4

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

NM-PARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$875.47

Value

$865.47

PnL

-$10

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Hawks$54072¢+$0

Bulls$335.4728.9¢-$10

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$638.24

Value

$560

PnL

-$39.84

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LightParadoxCTR

Bulls

Invested

$417.93

Value

$393.22

PnL

-$24.71

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GC-PARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$360.01

Value

$350.01

PnL

-$10

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Invested

$273.75

Value

$262.39

PnL

-$11.36

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

suntori

Hawks

Invested

$213.31

Value

$211.29

PnL

-$2.02

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189CTR

Bulls

Invested

$898.92

Value

$185.16

PnL

+$4.74

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

MadridTimeCTR

Bulls

Invested

$182.55

Value

$176.26

PnL

-$6.29

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

ic4cream<$100

Hawks

Invested

$70.7

Value

$72.72

PnL

+$2.02

Record

24-459 (483)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$71.11

Value

$68.66

PnL

-$2.45

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$36.46

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$27.57

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$1.84

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$15.75

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$12.6

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.84

Record

58%

3426-2517 (5943)

OddstormCTR

Bulls

Invested

$179.33

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$2.33

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$56.35

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$1.98

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

thatsabing0<$100

Hawks

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

177-101 (278)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.96

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.96

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hawks

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

hydra1248<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 23 top traders (30%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 73% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 64% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.