Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 54¢ · $989 held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$988.78

Combined PnL

-$4.52

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$622.68

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL-$3.59

Under7 traders

Total Value$366.1

Total Shares779

Combined PnL-$0.93

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.6¢	$437.39	$432.62	-$4.77	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$122.03	$122.23	+$0.2	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 47¢	$114.28	$113.06	-$1.22	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47¢	$107.63	$107.63	-$0	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 53¢	$93.92	$94.79	+$0.86	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 53¢	$33.47	$33.78	+$0.32	33% 251-499 (750)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 53¢	$31.27	$31.27	+$0	52% 471-427 (898)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 53¢	$30.21	$30.21	+$0	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.9¢	$10.69	$10.72	+$0.03	53% 388-339 (727)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$5.21	$5.16	-$0.04	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.7	+$0.1	40% 584-893 (1477)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.58	$2.58	-$0	49% 1306-1355 (2661)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$437.39

Value

$432.62

PnL

-$4.77

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$122.03

Value

$122.23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$114.28

Value

$113.06

PnL

-$1.22

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$107.63

Value

$107.63

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$93.92

Value

$94.79

PnL

+$0.86

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$33.47

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$0.32

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$31.27

Value

$31.27

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$30.21

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.69

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.