Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$24.54

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,472

Combined PnL-$141.26

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,862

Combined PnL+$116.73

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52.2¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$112.51	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$112.38	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
SE sentrio	Overavg 52¢	$286.55	$278.33	-$8.22	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52.8¢	$190.59	$182.39	-$8.21	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$175	-$10.5	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$257.36	$103.07	+$4.24	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 52¢	$47.61	$45.78	-$1.83	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$14.7	$14.8	+$0.1	53% 388-339 (727)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5.35	$5.46	+$0.11	36% 761-1361 (2122)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.1	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$4,344.1

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$112.51

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,640.84

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$112.38

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$286.55

Value

$278.33

PnL

-$8.22

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$190.59

Value

$182.39

PnL

-$8.21

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$185.5

Value

$175

PnL

-$10.5

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$257.36

Value

$103.07

PnL

+$4.24

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$47.61

Value

$45.78

PnL

-$1.83

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.11

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.